Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (65%). 3 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Union Brescia win on 2026-11-14?

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 36¢ · $817 held · ended Nov 14

Yes36¢No64¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$816.88

Combined PnL

-$24.07

Smart Money Entry

54.9¢ → 35.5¢

-35% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 36%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 65%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes36%

No65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$390.02

Total Shares658

Combined PnL+$29.02

No6 traders

Total Value$280.95

Total Shares755

Combined PnL-$53.09

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
rayvanmechelenCTR	Yesavg 55¢	$328.92	$346.86	+$17.94	9% 30-286 (316)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 44.5¢	$232.53	$212.15	-$18.35	53% 1343-1170 (2513)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 53.6¢	$147.39	$145.89	-$1.51	49% 3811-3974 (7785)
└ No leg	Noavg 53.6¢	$113.43	$104.81	-$8.61
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 41.8¢	$33.96	$41.07	+$7.11
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Noavg 44.5¢	$81.02	$40.08	-$40.94	53% 2083-1825 (3908)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Yesavg 58¢	$29	$39.5	+$10.5	30% 334-774 (1108)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 42.8¢	$13.87	$18.17	+$4.3	37% 1022-1710 (2732)
poshposh<$100	Noavg 41¢	$5.63	$7.07	+$1.44	48% 1104-1175 (2279)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 32¢	$3.09	$3.67	+$0.58	48% 2067-2229 (4296)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Noavg 40¢	$2	$2.57	+$0.57	44% 365-466 (831)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 23¢	$1.02	$0.91	-$0.11	53% 7051-6190 (13241)

rayvanmechelenCTR

Yes

Invested

$328.92

Value

$346.86

PnL

+$17.94

Record

30-286 (316)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$232.53

Value

$212.15

PnL

-$18.35

Record

53%

1343-1170 (2513)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$147.39

Value

$145.89

PnL

-$1.51

Record

49%

3811-3974 (7785)

Both legs:

No$113.4353.6¢-$8.61

Yes$33.9641.8¢+$7.11

GoalLineGhost<$100

Invested

$81.02

Value

$40.08

PnL

-$40.94

Record

53%

2083-1825 (3908)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$29

Value

$39.5

PnL

+$10.5

Record

30%

334-774 (1108)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$13.87

Value

$18.17

PnL

+$4.3

Record

37%

1022-1710 (2732)

poshposh<$100

Invested

$5.63

Value

$7.07

PnL

+$1.44

Record

48%

1104-1175 (2279)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.09

Value

$3.67

PnL

+$0.58

Record

48%

2067-2229 (4296)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Invested

Value

$2.57

PnL

+$0.57

Record

44%

365-466 (831)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$1.02

Value

$0.91

PnL

-$0.11

Record

53%

7051-6190 (13241)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 36%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 65%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance37.7%

35.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$165.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

265.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.