Will US Albinoleffe win on 2026-11-14?

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 86¢ · $923 held · ended Nov 14

Yes14¢No86¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 64%

Total Value

$923.1

Combined PnL

-$22.9

Smart Money Entry

86.9¢ → 86¢

-1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$835.81

Total Shares969

Combined PnL-$24.29

Yes4 traders

Total Value$87.29

Total Shares529

Combined PnL+$1.4

No — 64%Yes — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 92¢	$407.26	$381.2	-$26.05	49% 3811-3974 (7785)
LI Limousin	Noavg 83¢	$336.15	$334.13	-$2.02	36% 928-1642 (2570)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 85¢	$86.29	$90.35	+$4.06	35% 438-797 (1235)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$68.95	$70.88	+$1.93	53% 1343-1170 (2513)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.5¢	$16.31	$15.74	-$0.57	53% 2083-1825 (3908)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 80¢	$12	$12.38	+$0.38	37% 957-1658 (2615)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 75¢	$7.5	$7.1	-$0.4	37% 1022-1710 (2732)
SL SlickRick123<$100	Noavg 73¢	$7.3	$7.1	-$0.2	34% 366-702 (1068)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Noavg 72¢	$3.6	$3.55	-$0.05	44% 365-466 (831)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Yesavg 4¢	$0.42	$0.47	+$0.05	52% 815-747 (1562)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 18¢	$0.22	$0.21	-$0.01	55% 5362-4303 (9665)

Flaznorp

Invested

$407.26

Value

$381.2

PnL

-$26.05

Record

49%

3811-3974 (7785)

Limousin

Invested

$336.15

Value

$334.13

PnL

-$2.02

Record

36%

928-1642 (2570)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$86.29

Value

$90.35

PnL

+$4.06

Record

35%

438-797 (1235)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$68.95

Value

$70.88

PnL

+$1.93

Record

53%

1343-1170 (2513)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.31

Value

$15.74

PnL

-$0.57

Record

53%

2083-1825 (3908)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$12

Value

$12.38

PnL

+$0.38

Record

37%

957-1658 (2615)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$7.5

Value

$7.1

PnL

-$0.4

Record

37%

1022-1710 (2732)

SlickRick123<$100

Invested

$7.3

Value

$7.1

PnL

-$0.2

Record

34%

366-702 (1068)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Invested

$3.6

Value

$3.55

PnL

-$0.05

Record

44%

365-466 (831)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.42

Value

$0.47

PnL

+$0.05

Record

52%

815-747 (1562)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.22

Value

$0.21

PnL

-$0.01

Record

55%

5362-4303 (9665)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.6%

86.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.