Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was No — and it was correct. Winning outcome: No
Will AC Renate win on 2026-11-14?
Resolved No. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
8
No 63%
1 arb excluded
$565.37
$38.06
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Yesavg 57.3¢ | $370.78 | $267.51 | -$103.27 | 49% 3844-4007 (7851) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 57.3¢ | $215.91 | — | -$215.91 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 57.9¢ | $154.87 | $267.51 | +$112.64 | |
TO topdogbigboi | Noavg 47.9¢ | $70.81 | $131.71 | +$60.9 | 37% 1030-1738 (2768) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Yesavg 42.5¢ | $66.78 | — | -$66.78 | 30% 340-779 (1119) |
SM smithagent<$100 | Noavg 14.7¢ | $8.8 | $60 | +$51.2 | 45% 659-820 (1479) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 49.1¢ | $22.58 | $46.02 | +$23.44 | 53% 7092-6207 (13299) |
LR lryyy<$100 | Noavg 57¢ | $25.08 | $44 | +$18.92 | 45% 810-993 (1803) |
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100 | Yesavg 80¢ | $71.89 | — | -$51.89 | 34% 370-706 (1076) |
 poshposh<$100 | Noavg 58¢ | $9.36 | $16.13 | +$6.77 | 48% 1130-1207 (2337) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 30¢ | $4.5 | — | -$4.5 | 48% 2091-2257 (4348) |
Invested
$370.78
Value
$267.51
PnL
-$103.27
Record
49%
3844-4007 (7851)
Both legs:
Invested
$70.81
Value
$131.71
PnL
+$60.9
Record
37%
1030-1738 (2768)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$66.78
Value
—
PnL
-$66.78
Record
30%
340-779 (1119)
Invested
$8.8
Value
$60
PnL
+$51.2
Record
45%
659-820 (1479)
Invested
$22.58
Value
$46.02
PnL
+$23.44
Record
53%
7092-6207 (13299)
Invested
$25.08
Value
$44
PnL
+$18.92
Record
45%
810-993 (1803)
Invested
$71.89
Value
—
PnL
-$51.89
Record
34%
370-706 (1076)
poshposh<$100Invested
$9.36
Value
$16.13
PnL
+$6.77
Record
48%
1130-1207 (2337)
Invested
$4.5
Value
—
PnL
-$4.5
Record
48%
2091-2257 (4348)