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OverOverUnderUnderUnder
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Under — but Over won instead.
AC Lumezzane vs. AC Trento: O/U 1.5
Resolved Over. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Under. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
4
Under 75%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$67.24
Combined PnL
$0
Smart Money Signal
Under
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Over100%
Under0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Over1 trader
Total Value$17.25
Total Shares17
Combined PnL+$4.14
Under3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares17
Combined PnL-$4.14
Over — 25%Under — 75%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Overavg 95.3¢ | $74.11 | $49.99 | -$24.12 | 49% 3959-4107 (8066) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 95.3¢ | $47.65 | $49.99 | +$2.34 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 23.1¢ | $26.46 | — | -$26.46 | |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Overavg 76¢ | $13.11 | $17.25 | +$4.14 | 53% 2162-1905 (4067) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Underavg 24¢ | $1.38 | — | -$1.38 | 37% 991-1715 (2706) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Underavg 24¢ | $1.38 | — | -$1.38 | 37% 1002-1720 (2722) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Underavg 24¢ | $1.38 | — | -$1.38 | 36% 975-1701 (2676) |
FL
FlaznorpARB<$100Invested
$74.11
Value
$49.99
PnL
-$24.12
Record
49%
3959-4107 (8066)
Both legs:
Over$47.6595.3¢+$2.34
Under$26.4623.1¢-$26.46
GO
GoalLineGhost<$100Invested
$13.11
Value
$17.25
PnL
+$4.14
Record
53%
2162-1905 (4067)
VE
VenusianCTR<$100Invested
$1.38
Value
—
PnL
-$1.38
Record
37%
991-1715 (2706)
LI
LightParadoxCTR<$100Invested
$1.38
Value
—
PnL
-$1.38
Record
37%
1002-1720 (2722)
LI
LimousinCTR<$100Invested
$1.38
Value
—
PnL
-$1.38
Record
36%
975-1701 (2676)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x10760bfb...fd57ef
Slug
serc-acl-tren-2026-11-14-total-1pt5