Will Venezia FC win on 2026-11-06?
8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 57¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 73%
$13.9K
-$108.53
57.6¢ → 57.5¢
+0% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 57%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 56%
Freshness
Mature
28h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DA darkumbreon88CTR | Yesavg 43.3¢ | $5.7K | $5.6K | -$43.69 | 64% 1963-1092 (3055) |
LI LightParadox | Noavg 58.2¢ | $2.7K | $2.7K | -$57.87 | 51% 1393-1314 (2707) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 57.7¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | +$1.06 | 51% 25823-24512 (50335) |
LI Limousin | Noavg 58.2¢ | $1.1K | $1.0K | -$22.14 | 53% 1442-1288 (2730) |
 rayvanmechelen | Noavg 57.2¢ | $1.0K | $998.21 | +$8.76 | 53% 2581-2270 (4851) |
 nigiri99 | Noavg 56¢ | $840 | $855 | +$7.5 | 46% 8596-10247 (18843) |
MA MadridTime | Noavg 58.2¢ | $352.26 | $344.85 | -$7.41 | 50% 1340-1327 (2667) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 56¢ | $234.34 | $238.53 | +$4.18 | 64% 9971-5600 (15571) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 56¢ | $180.52 | $183.74 | +$1.61 | 64% 9930-5532 (15462) |
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100 | Yesavg 43¢ | $26.4 | $26.4 | -$0 | 69% 7209-3191 (10400) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 44¢ | $16.25 | $14.93 | -$0.52 | 58% 21279-15443 (36722) |
Invested
$5,652.67
Value
$5.6K
PnL
-$43.69
Record
64%
1963-1092 (3055)
Invested
$2,749.62
Value
$2.7K
PnL
-$57.87
Record
51%
1393-1314 (2707)
Invested
$1,886.3
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$1.06
Record
51%
25823-24512 (50335)
Invested
$1,052.13
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$22.14
Record
53%
1442-1288 (2730)
rayvanmechelenInvested
$1,002.28
Value
$998.21
PnL
+$8.76
Record
53%
2581-2270 (4851)
nigiri99Invested
$840
Value
$855
PnL
+$7.5
Record
46%
8596-10247 (18843)
Invested
$352.26
Value
$344.85
PnL
-$7.41
Record
50%
1340-1327 (2667)
Invested
$234.34
Value
$238.53
PnL
+$4.18
Record
64%
9971-5600 (15571)
Invested
$180.52
Value
$183.74
PnL
+$1.61
Record
64%
9930-5532 (15462)
Invested
$26.4
Value
$26.4
PnL
-$0
Record
69%
7209-3191 (10400)
Invested
$16.25
Value
$14.93
PnL
-$0.52
Record
58%
21279-15443 (36722)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.