Venezia FC vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 2.5

13 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Under (68%) · Under at 87¢ · $40K held · ended Oct 28

Over13¢Under87¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 68%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$40.0K

Combined PnL

$6.4K

Smart Money Entry

61.2¢ → 87¢

+42% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

13 of 19 top traders (68%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over13%

Under87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under13 traders

Total Value$31.8K

Total Shares35,881

Combined PnL+$4.9K

Over6 traders

Total Value$7.1K

Total Shares11,371

Combined PnL+$1.5K

Under — 68%Over — 32%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Underavg 50.1¢	$9.0K	$10.5K	+$1.5K	54% 55737-47824 (103561)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 58.2¢	$6.0K	$8.0K	+$2.0K	50% 24379-23989 (48368)
WO wollaoCTR	Overavg 50.7¢	$5.0K	$6.9K	+$1.9K	58% 14-10 (24)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 68.1¢	$4.7K	$5.3K	+$650.85	59% 44632-31032 (75664)
RA rabbitfoot1	Underavg 76.4¢	$2.8K	$2.9K	+$105.28	53% 1104-975 (2079)
DA dashattacker	Underavg 65.5¢	$2.1K	$2.9K	+$776.19	72% 2285-872 (3157)
ZaiZoiBele	Underavg 86¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$9.94	80% 4969-1228 (6197)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Overavg 50.9¢	$492.91	$436.15	-$56.76	50% 10545-10397 (20942)
└ Under leg	Underavg 54.4¢	$193.68	$233.3	+$39.62
└ Over leg	Overavg 50.9¢	$299.23	$202.85	-$96.38
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Overavg 31.2¢	$471.58	$385.71	-$85.87	56% 2628-2079 (4707)
└ Under leg	Underavg 49¢	$122.5	$211	+$88.5
└ Over leg	Overavg 31.2¢	$349.08	$174.71	-$174.37
LI LilybaeumARB<$100	Overavg 35.6¢	$526.58	$236.78	-$289.8	62% 13616-8455 (22071)
└ Over leg	Overavg 35.6¢	$459.58	$139.39	-$320.19
└ Under leg	Underavg 61.4¢	$67	$97.39	+$30.39
LU LuckyLooCTR	Overavg 41.2¢	$578.21	$151.4	-$426.81	50% 12125-12330 (24455)
latvian.demon	Underavg 52¢	$260	$150	-$110	54% 638-545 (1183)
CA Cannae	Underavg 28¢	$106.76	$113.01	+$6.25	53% 15742-13910 (29652)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100	Underavg 39.9¢	$64.17	$84.86	+$20.69	47% 4449-4924 (9373)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 59.5¢	$46.08	$57.21	+$11.13	53% 3080-2737 (5817)
PA pauleta23<$100	Underavg 45.8¢	$49.94	$32.68	-$17.26	67% 23111-11517 (34628)
poshposhCTR<$100	Overavg 57.6¢	$27.61	$23.37	-$4.23	60% 9388-6379 (15767)
RI RichieRicher<$100	Underavg 78.5¢	$13.88	$14.01	+$0.13	53% 696-625 (1321)
TO torta.techCTR<$100	Overavg 29.4¢	$5.88	$6.11	+$0.23	63% 7978-4771 (12749)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Overavg 17.9¢	$3.59	$3.13	-$0.46	60% 3248-2179 (5427)
RO Rocky31<$100	Underavg 33¢	$1.28	$2.53	+$1.26	73% 1485-544 (2029)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Overavg 12¢	$2.4	$0.7	-$1.7	59% 30098-20824 (50922)

RN1

Under

Invested

$8,953.91

Value

$10.5K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

54%

55737-47824 (103561)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$6,015.43

Value

$8.0K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

50%

24379-23989 (48368)

wollaoCTR

Over

Invested

$5,000

Value

$6.9K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

58%

14-10 (24)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$4,682.74

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$650.85

Record

59%

44632-31032 (75664)

rabbitfoot1

Under

Invested

$2,840.07

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$105.28

Record

53%

1104-975 (2079)

dashattacker

Under

Invested

$2,142.53

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$776.19

Record

72%

2285-872 (3157)

ZaiZoiBele

Under

Invested

$1,709.68

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$9.94

Record

80%

4969-1228 (6197)

fooooolARB<$100

Over

Invested

$492.91

Value

$436.15

PnL

-$56.76

Record

50%

10545-10397 (20942)

Both legs:

Under$193.6854.4¢+$39.62

Over$299.2350.9¢-$96.38

Anon455ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$471.58

Value

$385.71

PnL

-$85.87

Record

56%

2628-2079 (4707)

Both legs:

Under$122.549¢+$88.5

Over$349.0831.2¢-$174.37

LilybaeumARB<$100

Over

Invested

$526.58

Value

$236.78

PnL

-$289.8

Record

62%

13616-8455 (22071)

Both legs:

Over$459.5835.6¢-$320.19

Under$6761.4¢+$30.39

LuckyLooCTR

Over

Invested

$578.21

Value

$151.4

PnL

-$426.81

Record

50%

12125-12330 (24455)

latvian.demon

Under

Invested

$260

Value

$150

PnL

-$110

Record

54%

638-545 (1183)

Cannae

Under

Invested

$106.76

Value

$113.01

PnL

+$6.25

Record

53%

15742-13910 (29652)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100

Under

Invested

$64.17

Value

$84.86

PnL

+$20.69

Record

47%

4449-4924 (9373)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$46.08

Value

$57.21

PnL

+$11.13

Record

53%

3080-2737 (5817)

pauleta23<$100

Under

Invested

$49.94

Value

$32.68

PnL

-$17.26

Record

67%

23111-11517 (34628)

poshposhCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$27.61

Value

$23.37

PnL

-$4.23

Record

60%

9388-6379 (15767)

RichieRicher<$100

Under

Invested

$13.88

Value

$14.01

PnL

+$0.13

Record

53%

696-625 (1321)

torta.techCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.88

Value

$6.11

PnL

+$0.23

Record

63%

7978-4771 (12749)

shiifooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.59

Value

$3.13

PnL

-$0.46

Record

60%

3248-2179 (5427)

Rocky31<$100

Under

Invested

$1.28

Value

$2.53

PnL

+$1.26

Record

73%

1485-544 (2029)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.4

Value

$0.7

PnL

-$1.7

Record

59%

30098-20824 (50922)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 87%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

13 of 19 top traders (68%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.5%

87.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.