Venezia FC vs. FC Internazionale Milano: 1st Half O/U 0.5

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 100¢ · $11K held · ended Oct 28

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.1K

Combined PnL

$1.7K

Smart Money Entry

65.5¢ → 100¢

+52% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$10.3K

Total Shares11,352

Combined PnL+$2.9K

Over4 traders

Total Value$614.86

Total Shares3,317

Combined PnL$-1.2K

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dashattacker	Underavg 81.8¢	$5.4K	$5.6K	+$209.03	72% 2285-872 (3157)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 42.7¢	$2.0K	$4.6K	+$2.7K	59% 44632-31032 (75664)
RN1CTR	Overavg 43.8¢	$1.7K	$575.49	$-1.1K	54% 55737-47824 (103561)
LU LuckyLooARB<$100	Underavg 55¢	$93.36	$153.32	+$59.97	50% 12125-12330 (24455)
└ Over leg	Overavg 16.6¢	$32.25	$98.32	+$66.08
└ Under leg	Underavg 55¢	$61.11	$55	-$6.11
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Underavg 44¢	$39.25	$44.16	+$4.91	49% 18616-19046 (37662)
poshposhCTR<$100	Overavg 39.3¢	$47.89	$29.24	-$18.65	60% 9388-6379 (15767)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$10	$10.1	+$0.1	67% 23111-11517 (34628)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 18¢	$0.86	$2.37	+$1.51	57% 13150-10021 (23171)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100	Overavg 61.5¢	$36.9	$0.03	-$36.87	47% 4449-4924 (9373)

dashattacker

Under

Invested

$5,425.45

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$209.03

Record

72%

2285-872 (3157)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$1,974.8

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$2.7K

Record

59%

44632-31032 (75664)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$1,693.15

Value

$575.49

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

54%

55737-47824 (103561)

LuckyLooARB<$100

Under

Invested

$93.36

Value

$153.32

PnL

+$59.97

Record

50%

12125-12330 (24455)

Both legs:

Over$32.2516.6¢+$66.08

Under$61.1155¢-$6.11

omnibus-076daa<$100

Under

Invested

$39.25

Value

$44.16

PnL

+$4.91

Record

49%

18616-19046 (37662)

poshposhCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$47.89

Value

$29.24

PnL

-$18.65

Record

60%

9388-6379 (15767)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10

Value

$10.1

PnL

+$0.1

Record

67%

23111-11517 (34628)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$0.86

Value

$2.37

PnL

+$1.51

Record

57%

13150-10021 (23171)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$36.9

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$36.87

Record

47%

4449-4924 (9373)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.