Torino FC vs. US Lecce: O/U 5.5
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 99¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Under
8
Under 50%
$1.4K
-$303.91
95.7¢ → 98.9¢
+3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 97¢ | $646.97 | $653.36 | +$6.38 | 50% 28937-28754 (57691) |
SN SnakeBall | Underavg 94.3¢ | $702.08 | $375.91 | -$326.18 | 51% 38228-37447 (75675) |
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 96.6¢ | $241.5 | $247.63 | +$6.13 | 51% 27227-25781 (53008) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Underavg 94.4¢ | $40.85 | $41.57 | +$0.73 | 54% 10453-8773 (19226) |
NO NotradecopyCTR<$100 | Overavg 6.1¢ | $4.86 | $39.6 | +$34.74 | 48% 4050-4327 (8377) |
DV dv-pmCTR<$100 | Overavg 6.7¢ | $5.02 | $37.12 | +$32.09 | 48% 3364-3589 (6953) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Overavg 4.9¢ | $58.34 | $11.4 | -$46.93 | 53% 62321-54560 (116881) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Overavg 3.6¢ | $13.75 | $2.87 | -$10.87 | 48% 62396-67251 (129647) |
Invested
$646.97
Value
$653.36
PnL
+$6.38
Record
50%
28937-28754 (57691)
Invested
$702.08
Value
$375.91
PnL
-$326.18
Record
51%
38228-37447 (75675)
Invested
$241.5
Value
$247.63
PnL
+$6.13
Record
51%
27227-25781 (53008)
Invested
$40.85
Value
$41.57
PnL
+$0.73
Record
54%
10453-8773 (19226)
Invested
$4.86
Value
$39.6
PnL
+$34.74
Record
48%
4050-4327 (8377)
Invested
$5.02
Value
$37.12
PnL
+$32.09
Record
48%
3364-3589 (6953)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$58.34
Value
$11.4
PnL
-$46.93
Record
53%
62321-54560 (116881)
Invested
$13.75
Value
$2.87
PnL
-$10.87
Record
48%
62396-67251 (129647)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.