Torino FC vs. US Lecce: O/U 3.5

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (58%) · Under at 96¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 7

Over5¢Under95¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 58%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.2K

Combined PnL

$970.95

Smart Money Entry

74.6¢ → 95.5¢

+28% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 12 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over5%

Under96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$6.9K

Total Shares7,089

Combined PnL+$1.0K

Over5 traders

Total Value$183.86

Total Shares893

Combined PnL-$54.93

Under — 58%Over — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 73.5¢	$3.7K	$4.7K	+$983.4	50% 28937-28754 (57691)
0X 0xe02066958cfd02ee1fc8a4cdb51b56a1ca50f39b	Underavg 72¢	$720	$955	+$235	53% 232-209 (441)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 73.6¢	$873.13	$642.11	-$231.02	51% 27227-25781 (53008)
0xheavy888	Underavg 96¢	$391.74	$383.2	-$8.54	56% 8223-6528 (14751)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 23.9¢	$320.42	$183.26	-$137.17	48% 62396-67251 (129647)
└ Under leg	Underavg 72¢	$108	$143.25	+$35.25
└ Over leg	Overavg 23.9¢	$212.42	$40	-$172.42
NM NM-P	Underavg 72¢	$108.71	$144.2	+$35.48	64% 10182-5720 (15902)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Overavg 26.9¢	$100.54	$111.93	+$9.38	50% 21550-21844 (43394)
RN1<$100	Underavg 77.9¢	$52.27	$64.12	+$11.85	53% 62321-54560 (116881)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 30¢	$43.68	$43.63	-$0.04	48% 1775-1911 (3686)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 71¢	$20.8	$20.51	-$0.29	58% 21689-15792 (37481)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 22.1¢	$36.57	$14.8	-$18.02	54% 10453-8773 (19226)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Overavg 23¢	$57.5	$11.25	-$46.25	55% 3804-3137 (6941)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 30¢	$2.25	$2.24	-$0	49% 1800-1900 (3700)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$3,672.69

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$983.4

Record

50%

28937-28754 (57691)

0xe02066958cfd02ee1fc8a4cdb51b56a1ca50f39b

Under

Invested

$720

Value

$955

PnL

+$235

Record

53%

232-209 (441)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$873.13

Value

$642.11

PnL

-$231.02

Record

51%

27227-25781 (53008)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$391.74

Value

$383.2

PnL

-$8.54

Record

56%

8223-6528 (14751)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$320.42

Value

$183.26

PnL

-$137.17

Record

48%

62396-67251 (129647)

Both legs:

Under$10872¢+$35.25

Over$212.4223.9¢-$172.42

NM-P

Under

Invested

$108.71

Value

$144.2

PnL

+$35.48

Record

64%

10182-5720 (15902)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Over

Invested

$100.54

Value

$111.93

PnL

+$9.38

Record

50%

21550-21844 (43394)

RN1<$100

Under

Invested

$52.27

Value

$64.12

PnL

+$11.85

Record

53%

62321-54560 (116881)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$43.68

Value

$43.63

PnL

-$0.04

Record

48%

1775-1911 (3686)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$20.8

Value

$20.51

PnL

-$0.29

Record

58%

21689-15792 (37481)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$36.57

Value

$14.8

PnL

-$18.02

Record

54%

10453-8773 (19226)

Anon455CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$57.5

Value

$11.25

PnL

-$46.25

Record

55%

3804-3137 (6941)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.25

Value

$2.24

PnL

-$0

Record

49%

1800-1900 (3700)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 12 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.7%

95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.