Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (76%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Torino FC vs. US Lecce: O/U 1.5

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 25¢ · $52 held · ends Nov 7

Over76¢Under24¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

Total Value

$52.11

Combined PnL

$0.81

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Over 76%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over76%

Under25%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$25.75

Total Shares50

Combined PnL-$11.75

Under3 traders

Total Value$26.36

Total Shares54

Combined PnL+$12.56

Over — 40%Under — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp<$100	Overavg 75¢	$30	$20.6	-$9.4	51% 27202-25761 (52963)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 25.9¢	$6.02	$11.25	+$5.23	50% 1843-1850 (3693)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 25.9¢	$4.19	$7.84	+$3.65	49% 1833-1925 (3758)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 24¢	$3.6	$7.27	+$3.67	54% 10448-8768 (19216)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 75¢	$7.5	$5.15	-$2.35	58% 21687-15792 (37479)

Flaznorp<$100

Over

Invested

$30

Value

$20.6

PnL

-$9.4

Record

51%

27202-25761 (52963)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.02

Value

$11.25

PnL

+$5.23

Record

50%

1843-1850 (3693)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.19

Value

$7.84

PnL

+$3.65

Record

49%

1833-1925 (3758)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.6

Value

$7.27

PnL

+$3.67

Record

54%

10448-8768 (19216)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$7.5

Value

$5.15

PnL

-$2.35

Record

58%

21687-15792 (37479)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Over 76%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance26.4%

24.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$278.07

Max Loss

-$100.00

378.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.