Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (73%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Torino FC vs. US Lecce: O/U 0.5

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (63%) · Under at 28¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 7

Over73¢Under27¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

$1.2K

Smart Money Entry

8.3¢ → 27.5¢

+232% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Over 73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over73%

Under28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares6,751

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Over3 traders

Total Value$536.68

Total Shares642

Combined PnL-$63.34

Under — 63%Over — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 8.6¢	$291.59	$933.97	+$642.39	51% 27227-25781 (53008)
RN1CTR	Underavg 8¢	$239.84	$824.45	+$584.61	53% 62321-54560 (116881)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 77¢	$443.16	$547.01	+$103.85	50% 28937-28754 (57691)
└ Over leg	Overavg 77¢	$396.1	$372.95	-$23.15
└ Under leg	Underavg 7.4¢	$47.06	$174.05	+$127
38 38791873984189	Overavg 90.3¢	$470.34	$431.4	-$38.95	48% 62396-67251 (129647)
PA Pan9X	Overavg 88.4¢	$105.85	$89.32	-$11.54	54% 10453-8773 (19226)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 7¢	$17.5	$68.75	+$51.25	50% 1850-1863 (3713)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 6¢	$2.88	$23.31	+$20.42	51% 38228-37447 (75675)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 12¢	$7.02	$16.09	+$9.07	49% 1843-1935 (3778)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 93¢	$30.82	$15.96	-$12.86	58% 21689-15792 (37481)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$291.59

Value

$933.97

PnL

+$642.39

Record

51%

27227-25781 (53008)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$239.84

Value

$824.45

PnL

+$584.61

Record

53%

62321-54560 (116881)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$443.16

Value

$547.01

PnL

+$103.85

Record

50%

28937-28754 (57691)

Both legs:

Invested

$470.34

Value

$431.4

PnL

-$38.95

Record

48%

62396-67251 (129647)

Pan9X

Over

Invested

$105.85

Value

$89.32

PnL

-$11.54

Record

54%

10453-8773 (19226)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$17.5

Value

$68.75

PnL

+$51.25

Record

50%

1850-1863 (3713)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.88

Value

$23.31

PnL

+$20.42

Record

51%

38228-37447 (75675)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.02

Value

$16.09

PnL

+$9.07

Record

49%

1843-1935 (3778)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$30.82

Value

$15.96

PnL

-$12.86

Record

58%

21689-15792 (37481)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Over 73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance29.5%

27.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$238.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

338.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.