Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (54%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Torino FC win on 2026-11-07?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 47¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 88%
$2.9K
$21.45
46.5¢ → 46.5¢
+0% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 47%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 54%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Late
66h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 46.7¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | +$14.34 | 51% 26809-25398 (52207) |
DA darkumbreon88 | Yesavg 53¢ | $895.76 | $895.76 | -$0 | 64% 2024-1128 (3152) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 46¢ | $246.58 | $249.3 | +$2.72 | 58% 47297-34106 (81403) |
GC GC-PCTR | Noavg 46¢ | $185.71 | $187.73 | +$2.02 | 64% 10147-5745 (15892) |
NM NM-PCTR | Noavg 46¢ | $185.28 | $187.3 | +$2.01 | 64% 10122-5677 (15799) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Noavg 46¢ | $23 | $23 | +$0.25 | 48% 62067-66946 (129013) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Noavg 46¢ | $7.87 | $7.87 | +$0.09 | 53% 16956-15080 (32036) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 46¢ | $2.3 | $2.33 | +$0.03 | 50% 26276-25912 (52188) |
Invested
$1,214.52
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$14.34
Record
51%
26809-25398 (52207)
Invested
$895.76
Value
$895.76
PnL
-$0
Record
64%
2024-1128 (3152)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$246.58
Value
$249.3
PnL
+$2.72
Record
58%
47297-34106 (81403)
Invested
$185.71
Value
$187.73
PnL
+$2.02
Record
64%
10147-5745 (15892)
Invested
$185.28
Value
$187.3
PnL
+$2.01
Record
64%
10122-5677 (15799)
Invested
$23
Value
$23
PnL
+$0.25
Record
48%
62067-66946 (129013)
Invested
$7.87
Value
$7.87
PnL
+$0.09
Record
53%
16956-15080 (32036)
Invested
$2.3
Value
$2.33
PnL
+$0.03
Record
50%
26276-25912 (52188)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.