Will US Lecce win on 2026-11-07?

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (58%) · No at 83¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 7

Yes18¢No82¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 58%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.8K

Combined PnL

-$193.7

Smart Money Entry

82.7¢ → 82.5¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 12 top traders (58%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes18%

No83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$5.9K

Total Shares7,529

Combined PnL-$333.43

Yes5 traders

Total Value$827.55

Total Shares3,714

Combined PnL+$139.73

No — 58%Yes — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XW xwingboy	Noavg 82.7¢	$5.0K	$4.7K	-$319.39	66% 364-185 (549)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 81.3¢	$927.32	$952.95	+$25.63	51% 27227-25781 (53008)
└ No leg	Noavg 81.3¢	$707.76	$717.84	+$10.08
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 16.3¢	$219.56	$235.11	+$15.55
AN Anon455	Noavg 82¢	$341.23	$343.31	+$2.08	55% 3804-3137 (6941)
NM NM-PCTR	Yesavg 18.6¢	$282.26	$340.65	+$58.4	64% 10182-5720 (15902)
GC GC-PCTR	Yesavg 18.6¢	$274.74	$332.38	+$57.64	64% 10179-5769 (15948)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 85¢	$250.5	$240.25	-$10.25	52% 14650-13314 (27964)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 82.1¢	$229.3	$229.93	+$0.63	48% 62396-67251 (129647)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 80.8¢	$181.47	$174.06	-$7.41	48% 1775-1911 (3686)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 82¢	$148.42	$149.33	+$0.91	50% 28937-28754 (57691)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 18¢	$90	$112.5	+$22.5	58% 47503-34297 (81800)
PA Pan9X<$100	Noavg 82.5¢	$82.5	$82.5	+$0	54% 10453-8773 (19226)
PT PT-S7ARB<$100	Noavg 85¢	$64.42	$50.86	-$5.61	49% 3280-3447 (6727)
└ No leg	Noavg 85¢	$30.03	$29.15	-$0.88
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 19.4¢	$24.1	$21.71	-$4.73
oieshfn345CTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$36.75	$37.84	+$1.08	57% 2111-1562 (3673)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$4.06	$4.18	+$0.12	49% 1843-1935 (3778)

xwingboy

Invested

$5,045

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$319.39

Record

66%

364-185 (549)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$927.32

Value

$952.95

PnL

+$25.63

Record

51%

27227-25781 (53008)

Both legs:

No$707.7681.3¢+$10.08

Yes$219.5616.3¢+$15.55

Anon455

Invested

$341.23

Value

$343.31

PnL

+$2.08

Record

55%

3804-3137 (6941)

NM-PCTR

Yes

Invested

$282.26

Value

$340.65

PnL

+$58.4

Record

64%

10182-5720 (15902)

GC-PCTR

Yes

Invested

$274.74

Value

$332.38

PnL

+$57.64

Record

64%

10179-5769 (15948)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$250.5

Value

$240.25

PnL

-$10.25

Record

52%

14650-13314 (27964)

38791873984189

Invested

$229.3

Value

$229.93

PnL

+$0.63

Record

48%

62396-67251 (129647)

MadridTime

Invested

$181.47

Value

$174.06

PnL

-$7.41

Record

48%

1775-1911 (3686)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$148.42

Value

$149.33

PnL

+$0.91

Record

50%

28937-28754 (57691)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$90

Value

$112.5

PnL

+$22.5

Record

58%

47503-34297 (81800)

Pan9X<$100

Invested

$82.5

Value

$82.5

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

10453-8773 (19226)

PT-S7ARB<$100

Invested

$64.42

Value

$50.86

PnL

-$5.61

Record

49%

3280-3447 (6727)

Both legs:

Invested

$36.75

Value

$37.84

PnL

+$1.08

Record

57%

2111-1562 (3673)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.06

Value

$4.18

PnL

+$0.12

Record

49%

1843-1935 (3778)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 83%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 12 top traders (58%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.2%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.