Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (74%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Torino FC vs. US Lecce end in a draw?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 26¢ · $328 held · ends Nov 7
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 67%
$327.75
-$2.91
26.4¢ → 26¢
-2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 26%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 74%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 64%
Freshness
Late
49h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GC GC-PCTR | Yesavg 26¢ | $108.59 | $108.59 | -$2.09 | 64% 10147-5745 (15892) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27¢ | $98.36 | $94.85 | -$3.51 | 50% 1780-1756 (3536) |
NM NM-PCTR<$100 | Yesavg 26¢ | $63.33 | $62.12 | -$1.22 | 64% 10122-5677 (15799) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27¢ | $52.25 | $50.39 | -$1.86 | 48% 1701-1821 (3522) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 73¢ | $174.93 | $7.67 | +$5.68 | 58% 47297-34106 (81403) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $4.08 | $4.13 | +$0.08 | 51% 26809-25398 (52207) |
Invested
$108.59
Value
$108.59
PnL
-$2.09
Record
64%
10147-5745 (15892)
Invested
$98.36
Value
$94.85
PnL
-$3.51
Record
50%
1780-1756 (3536)
Invested
$63.33
Value
$62.12
PnL
-$1.22
Record
64%
10122-5677 (15799)
Invested
$52.25
Value
$50.39
PnL
-$1.86
Record
48%
1701-1821 (3522)
VeryLucky888Invested
$174.93
Value
$7.67
PnL
+$5.68
Record
58%
47297-34106 (81403)
Invested
$4.08
Value
$4.13
PnL
+$0.08
Record
51%
26809-25398 (52207)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
26.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.