Torino FC vs. US Lecce: Both Teams to Score
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 55¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
8
Yes 75%
1 arb excluded
$2.2K
$219.94
42.4¢ → 55¢
+30% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $1.3K | $1.0K | -$246.1 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 59¢ | $1.0K | $774.54 | -$240.98 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 56.2¢ | $234.5 | $229.38 | -$5.12 | |
38 38791873984189 | Yesavg 39.8¢ | $514.78 | $708.89 | +$195.16 | 48% 63191-68207 (131398) |
 0xheavy888CTR | Noavg 45¢ | $180 | $182 | +$2 | 56% 8223-6528 (14751) |
SE sentrio | Yesavg 55¢ | $107.8 | $107.8 | -$0 | 50% 26409-26025 (52434) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Yesavg 39.7¢ | $66.78 | $92.4 | +$25.62 | 54% 10485-8797 (19282) |
DV dv-pm<$100 | Yesavg 53¢ | $53 | $54.5 | +$1.5 | 48% 3364-3589 (6953) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Yesavg 52.2¢ | $10.49 | $11.04 | +$0.3 | 50% 21550-21844 (43394) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Yesavg 51¢ | $9.38 | $9.58 | +$0.15 | 58% 47503-34297 (81800) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $14.15 | $9.37 | -$4.79 | 53% 63014-55227 (118241) |
Invested
$1,250.02
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$246.1
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
Both legs:
Invested
$514.78
Value
$708.89
PnL
+$195.16
Record
48%
63191-68207 (131398)
0xheavy888CTRInvested
$180
Value
$182
PnL
+$2
Record
56%
8223-6528 (14751)
Invested
$107.8
Value
$107.8
PnL
-$0
Record
50%
26409-26025 (52434)
Invested
$66.78
Value
$92.4
PnL
+$25.62
Record
54%
10485-8797 (19282)
Invested
$53
Value
$54.5
PnL
+$1.5
Record
48%
3364-3589 (6953)
Invested
$10.49
Value
$11.04
PnL
+$0.3
Record
50%
21550-21844 (43394)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$9.38
Value
$9.58
PnL
+$0.15
Record
58%
47503-34297 (81800)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$14.15
Value
$9.37
PnL
-$4.79
Record
53%
63014-55227 (118241)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.