Torino FC vs. Como 1907: 1st Half O/U 1.5

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 100¢ · $9K held · ended Oct 27

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.0K

Combined PnL

$175

Smart Money Entry

62.5¢ → 100¢

+60% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$5.9K

Total Shares9,501

Combined PnL-$39.24

Over4 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares6,076

Combined PnL+$214.24

Under — 60%Over — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 50% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Under 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dashattacker	Underavg 64¢	$4.4K	$4.3K	-$138.85	72% 2231-853 (3084)
JohnLKellyJrCTR	Overavg 49¢	$1.6K	$1.3K	-$566.61	53% 1192-1064 (2256)
eskilloCTR	Overavg 4¢	$91	$864.5	+$773.5	42% 575-794 (1369)
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 38.4¢	$849.31	$804.75	-$44.56	54% 55386-47442 (102828)
└ Over leg	Overavg 38.4¢	$543.72	$538.21	-$5.51
└ Under leg	Underavg 71.1¢	$305.59	$266.54	-$39.05
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 52.9¢	$630.57	$739.59	+$109.02	59% 44322-30683 (75005)
TO torta.tech	Underavg 63.9¢	$752.28	$729.74	-$22.54	63% 7956-4738 (12694)
DA darkumbreon88CTR	Overavg 38¢	$98.2	$100.79	+$1.29	65% 1650-894 (2544)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Underavg 61¢	$98.71	$100.36	+$1.65	58% 27884-20523 (48407)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 35.1¢	$73.65	$79.71	+$6.05	50% 11976-12131 (24107)
poshposh<$100	Underavg 50.8¢	$18.46	$22.51	+$4.05	60% 9138-6084 (15222)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 58.8¢	$13.08	$20.52	+$7.44	54% 2639-2268 (4907)

dashattacker

Under

Invested

$4,424.55

Value

$4.3K

PnL

-$138.85

Record

72%

2231-853 (3084)

JohnLKellyJrCTR

Over

Invested

$1,633.17

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$566.61

Record

53%

1192-1064 (2256)

eskilloCTR

Over

Invested

$91

Value

$864.5

PnL

+$773.5

Record

42%

575-794 (1369)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$849.31

Value

$804.75

PnL

-$44.56

Record

54%

55386-47442 (102828)

Both legs:

Over$543.7238.4¢-$5.51

Under$305.5971.1¢-$39.05

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$630.57

Value

$739.59

PnL

+$109.02

Record

59%

44322-30683 (75005)

torta.tech

Under

Invested

$752.28

Value

$729.74

PnL

-$22.54

Record

63%

7956-4738 (12694)

darkumbreon88CTR

Over

Invested

$98.2

Value

$100.79

PnL

+$1.29

Record

65%

1650-894 (2544)

LeLynxMalynx

Under

Invested

$98.71

Value

$100.36

PnL

+$1.65

Record

58%

27884-20523 (48407)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$73.65

Value

$79.71

PnL

+$6.05

Record

50%

11976-12131 (24107)

poshposh<$100

Under

Invested

$18.46

Value

$22.51

PnL

+$4.05

Record

60%

9138-6084 (15222)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$13.08

Value

$20.52

PnL

+$7.44

Record

54%

2639-2268 (4907)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 50% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Under 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.