Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (90%). 6 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

US Sassuolo Calcio vs. SS Lazio: O/U 8.5

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (55%) · Over at 11¢ · $62K held · ended Oct 27

Over11¢Under89¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 55%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$62.2K

Combined PnL

$8.4K

Smart Money Entry

58.6¢ → 10.5¢

-82% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 11%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Under 90%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over11%

Under90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$27.7K

Total Shares44,321

Combined PnL+$1.7K

Under5 traders

Total Value$23.8K

Total Shares31,830

Combined PnL+$6.7K

Over — 55%Under — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
7D 0x7d78...29a5CTR	Overavg 59¢	$19.8K	$20.9K	+$1.1K	—
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 46.3¢	$7.6K	$11.3K	+$3.7K	59% 44290-30654 (74944)
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 42¢	$11.9K	$10.2K	$-1.7K	54% 55353-47409 (102762)
└ Under leg	Underavg 45.8¢	$3.5K	$6.1K	+$2.6K
└ Over leg	Overavg 42¢	$8.4K	$4.1K	$-4.3K
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 43.7¢	$4.0K	$6.6K	+$2.6K	50% 24135-23755 (47890)
DA dashattacker	Underavg 77.4¢	$4.8K	$4.9K	+$123.26	72% 2228-852 (3080)
MA MagnabelliCTR	Overavg 72.9¢	$4.8K	$4.8K	-$43.07	78% 612-173 (785)
poshposhCTR	Overavg 15.7¢	$459.87	$1.1K	+$670.07	60% 9116-6042 (15158)
HRTrading	Underavg 48.7¢	$605.47	$890.98	+$285.51	54% 2609-2230 (4839)
fxwd12345CTR	Overavg 73¢	$535.09	$529.59	-$5.5	69% 1474-657 (2131)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Overavg 45.4¢	$761.4	$471.76	-$289.64	56% 2573-2023 (4596)
└ Over leg	Overavg 45.4¢	$556.65	$252.81	-$303.84
└ Under leg	Underavg 74.3¢	$204.75	$218.94	+$14.2
0x8ae599cc1fdeb17c95e2af00bd75a38034bd4f22CTR	Overavg 70¢	$350	$351.25	+$1.25	65% 1204-649 (1853)
RA rabbitfoot1	Underavg 55.9¢	$153.17	$148.11	-$5.06	53% 1100-972 (2072)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Overavg 33.9¢	$8.27	$8.75	+$0.48	49% 18415-18835 (37250)

0x7d78...29a5CTR

Over

Invested

$19,801.15

Value

$20.9K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

—

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$7,593.78

Value

$11.3K

PnL

+$3.7K

Record

59%

44290-30654 (74944)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$11,866.6

Value

$10.2K

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

54%

55353-47409 (102762)

Both legs:

Under$3,494.5645.8¢+$2.6K

Over$8,372.0442¢$-4.3K

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$3,982.47

Value

$6.6K

PnL

+$2.6K

Record

50%

24135-23755 (47890)

dashattacker

Under

Invested

$4,806.47

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$123.26

Record

72%

2228-852 (3080)

MagnabelliCTR

Over

Invested

$4,847.16

Value

$4.8K

PnL

-$43.07

Record

78%

612-173 (785)

poshposhCTR

Over

Invested

$459.87

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$670.07

Record

60%

9116-6042 (15158)

HRTrading

Under

Invested

$605.47

Value

$890.98

PnL

+$285.51

Record

54%

2609-2230 (4839)

fxwd12345CTR

Over

Invested

$535.09

Value

$529.59

PnL

-$5.5

Record

69%

1474-657 (2131)

Anon455ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$761.4

Value

$471.76

PnL

-$289.64

Record

56%

2573-2023 (4596)

Both legs:

Over$556.6545.4¢-$303.84

Under$204.7574.3¢+$14.2

0x8ae599cc1fdeb17c95e2af00bd75a38034bd4f22CTR

Over

Invested

$350

Value

$351.25

PnL

+$1.25

Record

65%

1204-649 (1853)

rabbitfoot1

Under

Invested

$153.17

Value

$148.11

PnL

-$5.06

Record

53%

1100-972 (2072)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.27

Value

$8.75

PnL

+$0.48

Record

49%

18415-18835 (37250)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 11%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Under 90%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance12.0%

10.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$732.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

832.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.