SS Lazio leading at halftime?

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (45%) · Yes at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 27

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 45%

Total Value

$3.4K

Combined PnL

$-1.5K

Smart Money Entry

96.9¢ → 100¢

+3% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares3,393

Combined PnL-$65.96

No6 traders

Total Value$165.44

Total Shares2,779

Combined PnL$-1.4K

Yes — 45%No — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Yesavg 97.3¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$4.66	54% 55353-47409 (102762)
LU LuckyLoo	Yesavg 93.5¢	$132.77	$133.48	+$0.71	50% 11961-12111 (24072)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 4.8¢	$7.21	$95.29	+$88.08	54% 2609-2230 (4839)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Noavg 63.4¢	$65.97	$64.48	-$0.97	58% 27870-20510 (48380)
poshposh<$100	Yesavg 88.2¢	$83.97	$58.73	-$25.24	60% 9116-6042 (15158)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Yesavg 95¢	$76	$29.6	-$46.4	50% 32601-32144 (64745)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Yesavg 94¢	$4.7	$5	+$0.3	36% 14598-26253 (40851)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Noavg 61¢	$4.27	$4.41	+$0.14	50% 24135-23755 (47890)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	Noavg 63¢	$1.5K	$1.17	$-1.5K	50% 2444-2434 (4878)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Noavg 6.5¢	$9.23	$0.07	-$9.16	59% 44290-30654 (74944)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Noavg 59¢	$20.06	$0.02	-$20.04	59% 29934-20654 (50588)

RN1

Yes

Invested

$3,025.06

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$4.66

Record

54%

55353-47409 (102762)

LuckyLoo

Yes

Invested

$132.77

Value

$133.48

PnL

+$0.71

Record

50%

11961-12111 (24072)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$7.21

Value

$95.29

PnL

+$88.08

Record

54%

2609-2230 (4839)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Invested

$65.97

Value

$64.48

PnL

-$0.97

Record

58%

27870-20510 (48380)

poshposh<$100

Yes

Invested

$83.97

Value

$58.73

PnL

-$25.24

Record

60%

9116-6042 (15158)

SnakeBall<$100

Yes

Invested

$76

Value

$29.6

PnL

-$46.4

Record

50%

32601-32144 (64745)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.7

Value

PnL

+$0.3

Record

36%

14598-26253 (40851)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Invested

$4.27

Value

$4.41

PnL

+$0.14

Record

50%

24135-23755 (47890)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

Invested

$1,498.79

Value

$1.17

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

50%

2444-2434 (4878)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Invested

$9.23

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$9.16

Record

59%

44290-30654 (74944)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Invested

$20.06

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$20.04

Record

59%

29934-20654 (50588)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.