Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 2 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

US Sassuolo Calcio vs. SS Lazio: 1st Half O/U 4.5

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (25%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $367 held · ended Oct 27

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 25%

Total Value

$367.31

Combined PnL

-$126.67

Smart Money Entry

0.3¢ → 0.1¢

-82% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 8 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$315.01

Total Shares561

Combined PnL+$118.86

Under2 traders

Total Value$52.3

Total Shares104,592

Combined PnL-$245.53

Over — 75%Under — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Overavg 25.6¢	$64.83	$119.03	+$54.2	59% 29934-20654 (50588)
HRTrading<$100	Overavg 99.1¢	$75.49	$74.59	-$0.9	54% 2609-2230 (4839)
DA dashattacker<$100	Overavg 23¢	$11.02	$39.96	+$28.94	72% 2228-852 (3080)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Overavg 24.1¢	$24.45	$31.87	+$7.42	50% 11961-12111 (24072)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Overavg 26.5¢	$16.02	$28.41	+$12.39	49% 18415-18835 (37250)
0X 0xbf2342fds234423dCTR	Underavg 0.5¢	$247.83	$27.3	-$220.53	51% 629-599 (1228)
SM SmallcoinsCTR<$100	Underavg 0.1¢	$50	$25	-$25	53% 1157-1017 (2174)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Overavg 9.7¢	$4.35	$21.15	+$16.8	59% 44290-30654 (74944)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Over

Invested

$64.83

Value

$119.03

PnL

+$54.2

Record

59%

29934-20654 (50588)

HRTrading<$100

Over

Invested

$75.49

Value

$74.59

PnL

-$0.9

Record

54%

2609-2230 (4839)

dashattacker<$100

Over

Invested

$11.02

Value

$39.96

PnL

+$28.94

Record

72%

2228-852 (3080)

LuckyLoo<$100

Over

Invested

$24.45

Value

$31.87

PnL

+$7.42

Record

50%

11961-12111 (24072)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Over

Invested

$16.02

Value

$28.41

PnL

+$12.39

Record

49%

18415-18835 (37250)

0xbf2342fds234423dCTR

Under

Invested

$247.83

Value

$27.3

PnL

-$220.53

Record

51%

629-599 (1228)

SmallcoinsCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$50

Value

$25

PnL

-$25

Record

53%

1157-1017 (2174)

UpTheBlues<$100

Over

Invested

$4.35

Value

$21.15

PnL

+$16.8

Record

59%

44290-30654 (74944)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 8 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.