1st Half Spread: SS Lazio (-1.5)

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold SS Lazio (57%) · SS Lazio at 100¢ · $672 held · ended Oct 27

SS Lazio>99¢US Sassuolo Calcio<1¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

SS Lazio

Consensus Traders

SS Lazio 57%

Total Value

$671.53

Combined PnL

$327.29

Smart Money Entry

9.3¢ → 100¢

+976% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralSS Lazio at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

SS Lazio

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

SS Lazio100%

US Sassuolo Calcio0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

US Sassuolo Calcio3 traders

Total Value$511.73

Total Shares544

Combined PnL+$395.69

SS Lazio4 traders

Total Value$159.79

Total Shares2,124

Combined PnL-$68.4

US Sassuolo Calcio — 43%SS Lazio — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBallCTR	US Sassuolo Calcioavg 22¢	$110.55	$472.35	+$361.8	50% 32601-32144 (64745)
0X 0x332a020cfAB56b019B470cA47B63fDA745D6c9a2-1724751213873	SS Lazioavg 8¢	$167.05	$125.29	-$41.76	37% 113-189 (302)
poshposhCTR<$100	US Sassuolo Calcioavg 10¢	$2.18	$20.49	+$18.31	60% 9116-6042 (15158)
HRTradingCTR<$100	US Sassuolo Calcioavg 11¢	$3.31	$18.89	+$15.58	54% 2609-2230 (4839)
RO Rocko33<$100	SS Lazioavg 76¢	$40.2	$18.3	-$17.51	64% 954-532 (1486)
US User7429<$100	SS Lazioavg 92¢	$20.43	$11.21	-$9.22	55% 8036-6505 (14541)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	SS Lazioavg 98¢	$4.9	$5	+$0.1	36% 14598-26253 (40851)

SnakeBallCTR

US Sassuolo Calcio

Invested

$110.55

Value

$472.35

PnL

+$361.8

Record

50%

32601-32144 (64745)

0x332a020cfAB56b019B470cA47B63fDA745D6c9a2-1724751213873

SS Lazio

Invested

$167.05

Value

$125.29

PnL

-$41.76

Record

37%

113-189 (302)

poshposhCTR<$100

US Sassuolo Calcio

Invested

$2.18

Value

$20.49

PnL

+$18.31

Record

60%

9116-6042 (15158)

HRTradingCTR<$100

US Sassuolo Calcio

Invested

$3.31

Value

$18.89

PnL

+$15.58

Record

54%

2609-2230 (4839)

Rocko33<$100

SS Lazio

Invested

$40.2

Value

$18.3

PnL

-$17.51

Record

64%

954-532 (1486)

User7429<$100

SS Lazio

Invested

$20.43

Value

$11.21

PnL

-$9.22

Record

55%

8036-6505 (14541)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

SS Lazio

Invested

$4.9

Value

PnL

+$0.1

Record

36%

14598-26253 (40851)

Research grade

NeutralSS Lazio at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

SS Lazio

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that SS Lazio wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.