Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Under — but Over won instead.

US Sassuolo Calcio vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 4.5

Resolved Over. 37% of the top Polymarket traders held Under. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Under 41%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$31.4K

Combined PnL

$-12.1K

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 19 top traders (37%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares32,533

Combined PnL$-22.2K

Over12 traders

Total Value$16.0K

Total Shares15,963

Combined PnL+$10.1K

Under — 37%Over — 63%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Underavg 63.6¢	$7.9K	—	$-7.9K	50% 19845-20180 (40025)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 71.3¢	$8.8K	—	$-8.8K	50% 26441-26261 (52702)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 57.5¢	$5.2K	—	$-5.2K	51% 317-303 (620)
RN1	Overavg 36.4¢	$4.7K	$12.9K	+$8.2K	54% 58173-50394 (108567)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 31.1¢	$3.5K	$9.6K	+$6.1K	51% 17649-16650 (34299)
└ Over leg	Overavg 31.1¢	$3.0K	$9.6K	+$6.6K
└ Under leg	Underavg 48.5¢	$545.91	—	-$545.91
UE uehehe7haha2hihia3jkst9ARB<$100	Overavg 64¢	$3.4K	$3.1K	-$253.65	58% 335-238 (573)
└ Under leg	Underavg 44.1¢	$1.4K	—	$-1.4K
└ Over leg	Overavg 64¢	$2.0K	$3.1K	+$1.1K
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 45¢	$1.3K	$1.1K	+$246.65	47% 13102-14675 (27777)
└ Under leg	Underavg 39.3¢	$475.5	—	-$475.5
└ Over leg	Overavg 45¢	$509.5	$1.1K	+$722.15
LU LuckyLoo	Overavg 26.1¢	$431.03	$1.6K	+$1.2K	49% 13483-14184 (27667)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Overavg 57.1¢	$559.25	$942.73	+$383.49	47% 10069-11208 (21277)
└ Over leg	Overavg 57.1¢	$538.4	$942.73	+$404.33
└ Under leg	Underavg 8.7¢	$20.84	—	-$20.84
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 41.5¢	$203.13	—	-$203.13	53% 344-310 (654)
ER72SENARB<$100	Overavg 55.3¢	$249.55	$256.52	+$6.98	68% 338-156 (494)
└ Under leg	Underavg 42¢	$107.75	—	-$107.75
└ Over leg	Overavg 55.3¢	$141.8	$256.52	+$114.73
DI dips.	Overavg 56.5¢	$411.04	$728.01	+$316.97	46% 7328-8524 (15852)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 46.4¢	$110.57	—	-$110.57	53% 337-294 (631)
CI cigarettes	Overavg 58.1¢	$283.3	$488	+$204.7	54% 21611-18652 (40263)
SM smithagent<$100	Overavg 57.5¢	$34.8	$56	+$21.2	48% 5105-5464 (10569)
SU suntoriARB<$100	Underavg 80¢	$106.26	$116.69	+$17.95	45% 13007-15781 (28788)
└ Under leg	Underavg 80¢	$76.18	—	-$76.18
└ Over leg	Overavg 24.2¢	$28.24	$116.69	+$94.13
poshposhARB<$100	Overavg 57¢	$143.51	$249.44	+$105.93	58% 11469-8326 (19795)
└ Over leg	Overavg 57¢	$142.29	$249.44	+$107.15
└ Under leg	Underavg 4¢	$1.22	—	-$1.22
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Overavg 20¢	$19.05	$95.23	+$76.18	46% 9230-10953 (20183)
RE retarb<$100	Overavg 35.8¢	$29.4	$82.21	+$52.81	48% 4280-4584 (8864)
alpheclabs2<$100	Overavg 51¢	$16.19	$31.75	+$15.56	49% 177-187 (364)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 53.8¢	$6.92	—	-$6.92	52% 6399-5797 (12196)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 45¢	$4.5	—	-$4.5	48% 5504-5966 (11470)
US User7429<$100	Overavg 38.6¢	$6.71	$17.38	+$10.67	55% 8538-6853 (15391)
SE sentrio<$100	Overavg 23¢	$1.15	$5	+$3.85	50% 25018-24739 (49757)
VA Vampiro1	Overavg 48.8¢	$200	$0.06	+$64.15	77% 3558-1064 (4622)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Under

Invested

$7,883.03

Value

—

PnL

$-7.9K

Record

50%

19845-20180 (40025)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$8,812.44

Value

—

PnL

$-8.8K

Record

50%

26441-26261 (52702)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$5,202.16

Value

—

PnL

$-5.2K

Record

51%

317-303 (620)

RN1

Over

Invested

$4,687.11

Value

$12.9K

PnL

+$8.2K

Record

54%

58173-50394 (108567)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$3,540.87

Value

$9.6K

PnL

+$6.1K

Record

51%

17649-16650 (34299)

Both legs:

Over$2,994.9631.1¢+$6.6K

Under$545.9148.5¢-$545.91

uehehe7haha2hihia3jkst9ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$3,371.23

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$253.65

Record

58%

335-238 (573)

Both legs:

Under$1,375.9844.1¢$-1.4K

Over$1,995.2564¢+$1.1K

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,280.25

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$246.65

Record

47%

13102-14675 (27777)

Both legs:

Under$475.539.3¢-$475.5

Over$509.545¢+$722.15

LuckyLoo

Over

Invested

$431.03

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

49%

13483-14184 (27667)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Over

Invested

$559.25

Value

$942.73

PnL

+$383.49

Record

47%

10069-11208 (21277)

Both legs:

Over$538.457.1¢+$404.33

Under$20.848.7¢-$20.84

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$203.13

Value

—

PnL

-$203.13

Record

53%

344-310 (654)

ER72SENARB<$100

Over

Invested

$249.55

Value

$256.52

PnL

+$6.98

Record

68%

338-156 (494)

Both legs:

Under$107.7542¢-$107.75

Over$141.855.3¢+$114.73

dips.

Over

Invested

$411.04

Value

$728.01

PnL

+$316.97

Record

46%

7328-8524 (15852)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$110.57

Value

—

PnL

-$110.57

Record

53%

337-294 (631)

cigarettes

Over

Invested

$283.3

Value

$488

PnL

+$204.7

Record

54%

21611-18652 (40263)

smithagent<$100

Over

Invested

$34.8

Value

$56

PnL

+$21.2

Record

48%

5105-5464 (10569)

suntoriARB<$100

Under

Invested

$106.26

Value

$116.69

PnL

+$17.95

Record

45%

13007-15781 (28788)

Both legs:

Under$76.1880¢-$76.18

Over$28.2424.2¢+$94.13

poshposhARB<$100

Over

Invested

$143.51

Value

$249.44

PnL

+$105.93

Record

58%

11469-8326 (19795)

Both legs:

Over$142.2957¢+$107.15

Under$1.224¢-$1.22

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Over

Invested

$19.05

Value

$95.23

PnL

+$76.18

Record

46%

9230-10953 (20183)

retarb<$100

Over

Invested

$29.4

Value

$82.21

PnL

+$52.81

Record

48%

4280-4584 (8864)

alpheclabs2<$100

Over

Invested

$16.19

Value

$31.75

PnL

+$15.56

Record

49%

177-187 (364)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.92

Value

—

PnL

-$6.92

Record

52%

6399-5797 (12196)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.5

Value

—

PnL

-$4.5

Record

48%

5504-5966 (11470)

User7429<$100

Over

Invested

$6.71

Value

$17.38

PnL

+$10.67

Record

55%

8538-6853 (15391)

sentrio<$100

Over

Invested

$1.15

Value

PnL

+$3.85

Record

50%

25018-24739 (49757)

Vampiro1

Over

Invested

$200

Value

$0.06

PnL

+$64.15

Record

77%

3558-1064 (4622)

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 19 top traders (37%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x192cfe54...66922c

Slug

sea-sas-fio-2026-11-02-total-4pt5

Traders in this Market

omnibus-076daa

Under — $0

GoalLineGhost

Under — $0

Venusian

Under — $0

RN1

Over — $12.9K

+$8.2K

Flaznorp

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$6.1K

uehehe7haha2hihia3jkst9

Arbitrage — excluded

38791873984189

Arbitrage — excluded

LuckyLoo

Over — $1.6K

topdogbigboi

Arbitrage — excluded

Limousin

Under — $0