Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (62%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

US Sassuolo Calcio vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 2.5

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 39¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 2

Over62¢Under38¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$25.18

Smart Money Entry

37¢ → 38.5¢

+4% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 39%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 62%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over62%

Under39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$753.82

Total Shares1,968

Combined PnL+$23.95

Over4 traders

Total Value$209.48

Total Shares337

Combined PnL+$1.23

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrOver 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 37¢	$572.02	$655.9	+$23.98	51% 17602-16613 (34215)
CA CannaeARB<$100	Overavg 62¢	$298.15	$301.46	+$3.3	53% 16253-14437 (30690)
└ Over leg	Overavg 62¢	$180.75	$179.3	-$1.46
└ Under leg	Underavg 37¢	$117.4	$122.16	+$4.76
SU suntori	Overavg 63¢	$19.04	$113.97	+$0.62	44% 6428-8029 (14457)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 62¢	$128.43	$107.86	+$2.22	47% 12954-14535 (27489)
└ Over leg	Overavg 62¢	$55.18	$54.74	-$0.45
└ Under leg	Underavg 37¢	$51.05	$53.12	+$2.67
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Underavg 37¢	$78.81	$78.81	+$0	46% 9226-10934 (20160)
nigiri99<$100	Overavg 62¢	$59.52	$60	+$0.48	46% 7287-8594 (15881)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Overavg 62¢	$19.65	$19.65	+$0	53% 2312-2036 (4348)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 37¢	$17.29	$17.29	+$0	50% 24998-24713 (49711)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 61¢	$15.73	$15.86	+$0.13	57% 17228-12894 (30122)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 37¢	$1.85	$1.83	-$0.03	52% 7634-6911 (14545)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$572.02

Value

$655.9

PnL

+$23.98

Record

51%

17602-16613 (34215)

CannaeARB<$100

Over

Invested

$298.15

Value

$301.46

PnL

+$3.3

Record

53%

16253-14437 (30690)

Both legs:

Invested

$19.04

Value

$113.97

PnL

+$0.62

Record

44%

6428-8029 (14457)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$128.43

Value

$107.86

PnL

+$2.22

Record

47%

12954-14535 (27489)

Both legs:

Over$55.1862¢-$0.45

Under$51.0537¢+$2.67

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$78.81

Value

$78.81

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

9226-10934 (20160)

nigiri99<$100

Over

Invested

$59.52

Value

$60

PnL

+$0.48

Record

46%

7287-8594 (15881)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Over

Invested

$19.65

Value

$19.65

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

2312-2036 (4348)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$17.29

Value

$17.29

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

24998-24713 (49711)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$15.73

Value

$15.86

PnL

+$0.13

Record

57%

17228-12894 (30122)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.85

Value

$1.83

PnL

-$0.03

Record

52%

7634-6911 (14545)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 39%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 62%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrOver 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance40.7%

38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$145.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

245.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.