US Sassuolo Calcio vs. ACF Fiorentina: Both Teams to Score

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (43%) · Yes at 65¢ · $412 held · ends Nov 2

Yes65¢No35¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 43%

Total Value

$411.96

Combined PnL

$1.07

Smart Money Entry

65.1¢ → 64.5¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes65%

No36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$230.37

Total Shares357

Combined PnL-$1.29

No4 traders

Total Value$181.58

Total Shares513

Combined PnL+$2.36

Yes — 43%No — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU suntori	Yesavg 65.1¢	$185.7	$184.06	-$1.64	44% 6439-8045 (14484)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 35¢	$154.81	$157.02	+$2.21	51% 17604-16613 (34217)
VeryLucky888<$100	Yesavg 65¢	$60.58	$41.83	+$0.29	58% 43592-31705 (75297)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 34.7¢	$15.63	$15.78	+$0.15	57% 17234-12896 (30130)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Noavg 34¢	$7.36	$7.36	+$0	47% 12972-14546 (27518)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Yesavg 65¢	$4.42	$4.49	+$0.07	53% 2312-2036 (4348)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Noavg 34¢	$1.43	$1.43	+$0	53% 16256-14439 (30695)

suntori

Yes

Invested

$185.7

Value

$184.06

PnL

-$1.64

Record

44%

6439-8045 (14484)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$154.81

Value

$157.02

PnL

+$2.21

Record

51%

17604-16613 (34217)

VeryLucky888<$100

Yes

Invested

$60.58

Value

$41.83

PnL

+$0.29

Record

58%

43592-31705 (75297)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$15.63

Value

$15.78

PnL

+$0.15

Record

57%

17234-12896 (30130)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Invested

$7.36

Value

$7.36

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

12972-14546 (27518)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.42

Value

$4.49

PnL

+$0.07

Record

53%

2312-2036 (4348)

CannaeCTR<$100

Invested

$1.43

Value

$1.43

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

16256-14439 (30695)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 65%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.