AS Roma vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 4.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 71¢ · $627 held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 60%
$626.93
$0.23
71¢ → 70.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 71%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-7 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 71¢ | $355 | $355 | +$0 | 58% 47503-34297 (81800) |
HI hi774c | Underavg 71¢ | $263.8 | $263.8 | +$0 | 46% 5316-6151 (11467) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Underavg 69¢ | $3.45 | $3.55 | +$0.1 | 52% 9018-8169 (17187) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Overavg 29.3¢ | $3.01 | $3.08 | +$0.13 | 51% 27227-25781 (53008) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Overavg 30¢ | $1.5 | $1.5 | +$0 | 50% 26409-26025 (52434) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$355
Value
$355
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
47503-34297 (81800)
Invested
$263.8
Value
$263.8
PnL
+$0
Record
46%
5316-6151 (11467)
Invested
$3.45
Value
$3.55
PnL
+$0.1
Record
52%
9018-8169 (17187)
Invested
$3.01
Value
$3.08
PnL
+$0.13
Record
51%
27227-25781 (53008)
Invested
$1.5
Value
$1.5
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
26409-26025 (52434)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.