AS Roma vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 3.5

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (55%) · Under at 53¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 7

Over48¢Under52¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 55%

Total Value

$5.1K

Combined PnL

-$21.62

Smart Money Entry

52.3¢ → 52.5¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over48%

Under53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares6,709

Combined PnL-$22.37

Over5 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares3,245

Combined PnL+$0.75

Under — 55%Over — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Late

80h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (9 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrUnder 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RA rabbitfoot1	Underavg 53.2¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$40.8	54% 1243-1053 (2296)
FE ferrariChampions2026	Underavg 51.2¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$23.36	42% 8168-11360 (19528)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Overavg 46¢	$537.57	$549.79	+$61.78	50% 21550-21844 (43394)
NM NM-PCTR	Overavg 50¢	$493.47	$467.61	-$25.85	64% 10182-5720 (15902)
GC GC-PCTR	Overavg 50¢	$925	$439.38	-$23.13	64% 10179-5769 (15948)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$64.04	$64.08	+$0.04	50% 26409-26025 (52434)
OD Oddstorm<$100	Underavg 54.2¢	$45.53	$43.64	-$1.88	48% 7449-7982 (15431)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 47¢	$403.54	$43	-$12.09	58% 47503-34297 (81800)
38 38791873984189<$100	Underavg 55¢	$25.29	$23.92	-$2.07	48% 62396-67251 (129647)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 52¢	$21.83	$21.81	-$0.65	58% 21689-15792 (37481)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100	Underavg 54.2¢	$10.31	$9.98	-$0.33	59% 6954-4900 (11854)

rabbitfoot1

Under

Invested

$1,810.47

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$40.8

Record

54%

1243-1053 (2296)

ferrariChampions2026

Under

Invested

$1,596.24

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$23.36

Record

42%

8168-11360 (19528)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Over

Invested

$537.57

Value

$549.79

PnL

+$61.78

Record

50%

21550-21844 (43394)

NM-PCTR

Over

Invested

$493.47

Value

$467.61

PnL

-$25.85

Record

64%

10182-5720 (15902)

GC-PCTR

Over

Invested

$925

Value

$439.38

PnL

-$23.13

Record

64%

10179-5769 (15948)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$64.04

Value

$64.08

PnL

+$0.04

Record

50%

26409-26025 (52434)

Oddstorm<$100

Under

Invested

$45.53

Value

$43.64

PnL

-$1.88

Record

48%

7449-7982 (15431)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$403.54

Value

$43

PnL

-$12.09

Record

58%

47503-34297 (81800)

38791873984189<$100

Under

Invested

$25.29

Value

$23.92

PnL

-$2.07

Record

48%

62396-67251 (129647)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$21.83

Value

$21.81

PnL

-$0.65

Record

58%

21689-15792 (37481)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100

Under

Invested

$10.31

Value

$9.98

PnL

-$0.33

Record

59%

6954-4900 (11854)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 53%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Late

80h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (9 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrUnder 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.