AS Roma vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 1.5

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 88¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 7

Over88¢Under12¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 60%

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

$54.47

Smart Money Entry

85.8¢ → 88¢

+3% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over88%

Under12%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares2,552

Combined PnL+$65.75

Under4 traders

Total Value$319.57

Total Shares2,663

Combined PnL-$11.28

Over — 60%Under — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 87.2¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$1.94	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 82.5¢	$746.31	$664.33	+$51.5	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
SN SnakeBall	Overavg 87¢	$321.47	$325.53	+$4.06	51% 38648-37820 (76468)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 11¢	$208.85	$227.22	+$18.38	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
GC GC-P	Overavg 87¢	$138.53	$140.12	+$1.59	64% 10184-5783 (15967)
PA Pan9X	Overavg 84.7¢	$132.26	$93.54	+$8.9	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 14.3¢	$46.12	$38.65	-$7.47	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 16.7¢	$41.91	$30.12	-$11.79	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 17.3¢	$33.97	$23.57	-$10.39	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 85.5¢	$53.54	$14.22	+$1.63	58% 23579-16943 (40522)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$1,130.44

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$1.94

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$746.31

Value

$664.33

PnL

+$51.5

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

SnakeBall

Over

Invested

$321.47

Value

$325.53

PnL

+$4.06

Record

51%

38648-37820 (76468)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$208.85

Value

$227.22

PnL

+$18.38

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

GC-P

Over

Invested

$138.53

Value

$140.12

PnL

+$1.59

Record

64%

10184-5783 (15967)

Pan9X

Over

Invested

$132.26

Value

$93.54

PnL

+$8.9

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$46.12

Value

$38.65

PnL

-$7.47

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$41.91

Value

$30.12

PnL

-$11.79

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$33.97

Value

$23.57

PnL

-$10.39

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$53.54

Value

$14.22

PnL

+$1.63

Record

58%

23579-16943 (40522)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 88%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.5%

88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.