Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-11-07?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 90¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
$3.9K
$56
88.2¢ → 89.5¢
+1% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 71%
Freshness
Fresh
8h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CA Cannae | Noavg 87.8¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$26.32 | 53% 16517-14663 (31180) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 88¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$22.5 | 58% 45427-32914 (78341) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 89¢ | $860.63 | $865.47 | +$4.84 | 51% 24219-22949 (47168) |
CI cigarettes | Noavg 89¢ | $142.4 | $143.2 | +$0.8 | 53% 22623-19873 (42496) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 88.4¢ | $94.55 | $95.77 | +$1.21 | 48% 59237-63255 (122492) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 88.7¢ | $30.92 | $31.2 | +$0.28 | 58% 19455-14308 (33763) |
 rayvanmechelen<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $9.99 | $10.05 | +$0.06 | 74% 2421-862 (3283) |
Invested
$1,399.18
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$26.32
Record
53%
16517-14663 (31180)
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,320
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$22.5
Record
58%
45427-32914 (78341)
Invested
$860.63
Value
$865.47
PnL
+$4.84
Record
51%
24219-22949 (47168)
Invested
$142.4
Value
$143.2
PnL
+$0.8
Record
53%
22623-19873 (42496)
Invested
$94.55
Value
$95.77
PnL
+$1.21
Record
48%
59237-63255 (122492)
Invested
$30.92
Value
$31.2
PnL
+$0.28
Record
58%
19455-14308 (33763)
rayvanmechelen<$100Invested
$9.99
Value
$10.05
PnL
+$0.06
Record
74%
2421-862 (3283)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.