Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (76%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will AS Roma win on 2026-11-07?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 25¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 7

Yes76¢No24¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$12.18

Smart Money Entry

24.2¢ → 24.5¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 76%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes76%

No25%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$634.68

Total Shares835

Combined PnL+$8.28

No6 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares7,312

Combined PnL+$3.91

Yes — 25%No — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Late

100h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA darkumbreon88	Yesavg 75¢	$622.61	$630.91	+$8.3	64% 2032-1134 (3166)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 24.1¢	$541.22	$538.14	-$3.08	51% 26991-25572 (52563)
GC GC-PCTR	Noavg 24¢	$520.67	$531.51	+$10.85	64% 10165-5759 (15924)
NM NM-PCTR	Noavg 24¢	$485.57	$485.57	-$0	64% 10163-5703 (15866)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 25.4¢	$188.92	$178.56	-$6.64	58% 47408-34193 (81601)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 24¢	$27.71	$27.71	+$0.58	50% 26346-25970 (52316)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Noavg 24¢	$5.92	$8.12	+$2.2	48% 62298-67159 (129457)
nigiri99<$100	Yesavg 76¢	$3.8	$3.78	-$0.02	46% 8745-10440 (19185)

darkumbreon88

Yes

Invested

$622.61

Value

$630.91

PnL

+$8.3

Record

64%

2032-1134 (3166)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$541.22

Value

$538.14

PnL

-$3.08

Record

51%

26991-25572 (52563)

GC-PCTR

Invested

$520.67

Value

$531.51

PnL

+$10.85

Record

64%

10165-5759 (15924)

NM-PCTR

Invested

$485.57

Value

$485.57

PnL

-$0

Record

64%

10163-5703 (15866)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$188.92

Value

$178.56

PnL

-$6.64

Record

58%

47408-34193 (81601)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$27.71

Value

$27.71

PnL

+$0.58

Record

50%

26346-25970 (52316)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Invested

$5.92

Value

$8.12

PnL

+$2.2

Record

48%

62298-67159 (129457)

nigiri99<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.8

Value

$3.78

PnL

-$0.02

Record

46%

8745-10440 (19185)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 76%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Late

100h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance26.4%

24.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$278.07

Max Loss

-$100.00

378.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.