AS Roma vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: Both Teams to Score
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (29%) · Yes at 59¢ · $861 held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 29%
1 arb excluded
$860.74
$2.29
58¢ → 58.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-35 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Yesavg 58¢ | $405.19 | $408.68 | +$3.49 | 51% 27202-25761 (52963) |
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100 | Yesavg 50¢ | $200 | $200 | +$0 | — 1-0 (1) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 50¢ | $100 | $116 | +$15 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 50¢ | $100 | $84 | -$15 | |
SE sentrio | Yesavg 58¢ | $118.42 | $119.19 | +$0.77 | 50% 26397-26018 (52415) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Noavg 43¢ | $39.44 | $38.98 | -$0.46 | 49% 1833-1925 (3758) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Noavg 42¢ | $37.88 | $37.48 | -$0.45 | 48% 62393-67249 (129642) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Noavg 43.6¢ | $31.18 | $30.43 | -$0.76 | 50% 1843-1850 (3693) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Noavg 44.2¢ | $20.79 | $19.74 | -$0.23 | 49% 1791-1892 (3683) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Noavg 42¢ | $6.3 | $6.22 | -$0.07 | 54% 10448-8768 (19216) |
Invested
$405.19
Value
$408.68
PnL
+$3.49
Record
51%
27202-25761 (52963)
Invested
$200
Value
$200
PnL
+$0
Record
—
1-0 (1)
Both legs:
Invested
$118.42
Value
$119.19
PnL
+$0.77
Record
50%
26397-26018 (52415)
Invested
$39.44
Value
$38.98
PnL
-$0.46
Record
49%
1833-1925 (3758)
Invested
$37.88
Value
$37.48
PnL
-$0.45
Record
48%
62393-67249 (129642)
Invested
$31.18
Value
$30.43
PnL
-$0.76
Record
50%
1843-1850 (3693)
Invested
$20.79
Value
$19.74
PnL
-$0.23
Record
49%
1791-1892 (3683)
Invested
$6.3
Value
$6.22
PnL
-$0.07
Record
54%
10448-8768 (19216)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.