Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (63%). 5 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

AS Roma vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 4.5

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 38¢ · $9K held · ended Oct 27

Over38¢Under62¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.6K

Combined PnL

-$701.51

Smart Money Entry

39.4¢ → 37.5¢

-5% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 38%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over38%

Under63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$6.1K

Total Shares15,693

Combined PnL-$636.4

Under5 traders

Total Value$503.07

Total Shares914

Combined PnL-$65.11

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1CTR	Overavg 39.7¢	$5.6K	$5.4K	-$187.08	54% 55386-47442 (102828)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 27.7¢	$1.6K	$2.0K	+$433.05	50% 24148-23764 (47912)
└ Over leg	Overavg 27.7¢	$874.08	$1.2K	+$310.06
└ Under leg	Underavg 53.3¢	$716.96	$839.95	+$122.99
FO foooool	Underavg 53.2¢	$275.68	$319.92	+$44.24	50% 10448-10312 (20760)
SK SkurwysynCTR	Overavg 46¢	$212.96	$273.15	+$60.18	49% 254-263 (517)
LA LaarsYCTR	Overavg 37¢	$848.87	$263.77	-$585.1	50% 3361-3312 (6673)
AN Anon455CTR	Overavg 32.5¢	$92.93	$168.9	+$75.98	56% 2575-2024 (4599)
MR MrBently	Underavg 47¢	$100.11	$87.33	-$12.78	53% 510-461 (971)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Underavg 84.9¢	$177.46	$85.69	-$91.77	58% 27884-20523 (48407)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Underavg 72¢	$11.09	$6.31	-$4.77	53% 2036-1804 (3840)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 60¢	$3.84	$3.81	-$0.03	54% 2639-2268 (4907)
LonnieHawkinssCTR<$100	Overavg 13¢	$1.95	$1.58	-$0.38	51% 1789-1699 (3488)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$5,576.21

Value

$5.4K

PnL

-$187.08

Record

54%

55386-47442 (102828)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,591.04

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$433.05

Record

50%

24148-23764 (47912)

Both legs:

Over$874.0827.7¢+$310.06

Under$716.9653.3¢+$122.99

foooool

Under

Invested

$275.68

Value

$319.92

PnL

+$44.24

Record

50%

10448-10312 (20760)

SkurwysynCTR

Over

Invested

$212.96

Value

$273.15

PnL

+$60.18

Record

49%

254-263 (517)

LaarsYCTR

Over

Invested

$848.87

Value

$263.77

PnL

-$585.1

Record

50%

3361-3312 (6673)

Anon455CTR

Over

Invested

$92.93

Value

$168.9

PnL

+$75.98

Record

56%

2575-2024 (4599)

MrBently

Under

Invested

$100.11

Value

$87.33

PnL

-$12.78

Record

53%

510-461 (971)

LeLynxMalynx

Under

Invested

$177.46

Value

$85.69

PnL

-$91.77

Record

58%

27884-20523 (48407)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Under

Invested

$11.09

Value

$6.31

PnL

-$4.77

Record

53%

2036-1804 (3840)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$3.84

Value

$3.81

PnL

-$0.03

Record

54%

2639-2268 (4907)

LonnieHawkinssCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.95

Value

$1.58

PnL

-$0.38

Record

51%

1789-1699 (3488)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 38%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance39.7%

37.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$151.99

Max Loss

-$100.00

252.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.