Parma Calcio 1913 vs. Udinese Calcio: 1st Half O/U 0.5
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (71%) · Under at 100¢ · $19K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 71%
$19.5K
$4.5K
69.4¢ → 100¢
+44% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Underavg 67.8¢ | $12.1K | $16.5K | +$4.3K | 54% 55737-47824 (103561) |
PA pauleta23CTR | Overavg 34.2¢ | $1.2K | $1.8K | +$591.43 | 67% 23111-11517 (34628) |
DA dashattacker | Underavg 83.9¢ | $1.6K | $926.44 | -$659.38 | 72% 2285-872 (3157) |
TO torta.techCTR | Overavg 9¢ | $47.16 | $267.24 | +$220.08 | 63% 7978-4771 (12749) |
ZX zxc368<$100 | Underavg 99.9¢ | $19.19 | $19.2 | +$0.01 | 99% 12680-184 (12864) |
PL PLACEYOURBETS123<$100 | Underavg 54¢ | $18.09 | $16.42 | -$1.68 | 59% 52-36 (88) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 61.3¢ | $5.98 | $4.78 | -$1.2 | 53% 3080-2737 (5817) |
RN1Invested
$12,131.06
Value
$16.5K
PnL
+$4.3K
Record
54%
55737-47824 (103561)
Invested
$1,200
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$591.43
Record
67%
23111-11517 (34628)
Invested
$1,585.82
Value
$926.44
PnL
-$659.38
Record
72%
2285-872 (3157)
Invested
$47.16
Value
$267.24
PnL
+$220.08
Record
63%
7978-4771 (12749)
Invested
$19.19
Value
$19.2
PnL
+$0.01
Record
99%
12680-184 (12864)
Invested
$18.09
Value
$16.42
PnL
-$1.68
Record
59%
52-36 (88)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$5.98
Value
$4.78
PnL
-$1.2
Record
53%
3080-2737 (5817)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.