Will Parma Calcio 1913 win on 2026-11-07?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 83¢ · $31K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$30.9K
-$352.32
80.7¢ → 82.5¢
+2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 83%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 80.8¢ | $19.8K | $20.2K | +$416.77 | 51% 27227-25781 (53008) |
DA darkumbreon88CTR | Yesavg 20¢ | $6.0K | $5.1K | -$895.95 | 64% 2039-1134 (3173) |
LI Limousin | Noavg 80¢ | $3.4K | $2.8K | +$85.62 | 50% 1850-1863 (3713) |
LI LightParadox | Noavg 80.8¢ | $1.8K | $1.9K | +$35.62 | 49% 1800-1900 (3700) |
VE Venusian | Noavg 81¢ | $1.0K | $846.71 | +$5.2 | 49% 1843-1935 (3778) |
NM NM-P<$100 | Noavg 81¢ | $26.17 | $26.78 | +$0.43 | 64% 10182-5720 (15902) |
Invested
$19,808.72
Value
$20.2K
PnL
+$416.77
Record
51%
27227-25781 (53008)
Invested
$5,973.03
Value
$5.1K
PnL
-$895.95
Record
64%
2039-1134 (3173)
Invested
$3,424.94
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$85.62
Record
50%
1850-1863 (3713)
Invested
$1,825.93
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$35.62
Record
49%
1800-1900 (3700)
Invested
$1,038.91
Value
$846.71
PnL
+$5.2
Record
49%
1843-1935 (3778)
Invested
$26.17
Value
$26.78
PnL
+$0.43
Record
64%
10182-5720 (15902)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.