Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (56%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-11-07?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 44¢ · $536 held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$535.83
-$21.67
45.6¢ → 43.5¢
-5% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 44%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 56%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 46.6¢ | $494.76 | $353.37 | -$31.4 | 58% 47486-34282 (81768) |
NM NM-PCTR | Noavg 43¢ | $138.27 | $147.86 | +$9.58 | 64% 10181-5719 (15900) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Noavg 47¢ | $23.5 | $21.5 | +$0.25 | 48% 62393-67249 (129642) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Yesavg 54.2¢ | $10.76 | $10.71 | -$0.05 | 48% 1767-1905 (3672) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Yesavg 55.2¢ | $2.45 | $2.4 | -$0.06 | 51% 27202-25761 (52963) |
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$494.76
Value
$353.37
PnL
-$31.4
Record
58%
47486-34282 (81768)
Invested
$138.27
Value
$147.86
PnL
+$9.58
Record
64%
10181-5719 (15900)
Invested
$23.5
Value
$21.5
PnL
+$0.25
Record
48%
62393-67249 (129642)
Invested
$10.76
Value
$10.71
PnL
-$0.05
Record
48%
1767-1905 (3672)
Invested
$2.45
Value
$2.4
PnL
-$0.06
Record
51%
27202-25761 (52963)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.