SSC Napoli vs. SS Lazio: O/U 4.5

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (30%) · Under at 89¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 8

Over12¢Under88¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 30%

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

$287.68

Smart Money Entry

81.1¢ → 88.5¢

+9% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over12%

Under89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares3,110

Combined PnL+$207.34

Over7 traders

Total Value$257.2

Total Shares1,099

Combined PnL+$80.34

Under — 30%Over — 70%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 81¢	$2.5K	$2.7K	+$225.38	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 17.7¢	$35.46	$99.14	+$63.68	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Overavg 11.8¢	$49.21	$47.77	-$1.45	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Overavg 19.1¢	$65	$39.09	-$25.92	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 18.5¢	$12.05	$32.18	+$20.12	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 83¢	$46.48	$28.28	-$18.2	51% 38648-37820 (76468)
RN1<$100	Underavg 88¢	$27.72	$27.88	+$0.16	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 19.8¢	$10.62	$26.6	+$15.97	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 17.7¢	$3.38	$9.46	+$6.08	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
DV dv-pmCTR<$100	Overavg 18.7¢	$1.12	$2.97	+$1.85	48% 3364-3590 (6954)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$2,450.21

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$225.38

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$35.46

Value

$99.14

PnL

+$63.68

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$49.21

Value

$47.77

PnL

-$1.45

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$65

Value

$39.09

PnL

-$25.92

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$12.05

Value

$32.18

PnL

+$20.12

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$46.48

Value

$28.28

PnL

-$18.2

Record

51%

38648-37820 (76468)

RN1<$100

Under

Invested

$27.72

Value

$27.88

PnL

+$0.16

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10.62

Value

$26.6

PnL

+$15.97

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.38

Value

$9.46

PnL

+$6.08

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

dv-pmCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.12

Value

$2.97

PnL

+$1.85

Record

48%

3364-3590 (6954)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 89%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.0%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.