SSC Napoli vs. SS Lazio: O/U 3.5

4 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 72¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 8

Over28¢Under72¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.7K

Combined PnL

$406.49

Smart Money Entry

63.7¢ → 71.5¢

+12% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 12 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over28%

Under72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$5.7K

Total Shares8,126

Combined PnL+$419.32

Over8 traders

Total Value$827.62

Total Shares2,165

Combined PnL-$12.84

Under — 33%Over — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 63.8¢	$5.0K	$5.4K	+$415.51	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Overavg 32.1¢	$276.75	$427.17	+$21.57	50% 21821-22062 (43883)
NM NM-P	Underavg 61¢	$304.99	$307.49	+$2.5	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
0X 0xe02066958cfd02ee1fc8a4cdb51b56a1ca50f39bCTR	Overavg 29¢	$257.78	$271.11	+$13.33	53% 232-209 (441)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 37¢	$160.15	$153.37	-$6.78	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
└ Over leg	Overavg 37¢	$95.09	$91.24	-$3.86
└ Under leg	Underavg 67.5¢	$65.06	$62.14	-$2.92
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Overavg 31.8¢	$68.1	$61.08	-$7.02	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
RN1<$100	Underavg 66.1¢	$23.39	$24.6	+$1.21	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 36.1¢	$23.62	$22.55	-$1.07	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 33.7¢	$21.9	$19.18	-$2.72	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
GC GC-P<$100	Underavg 61¢	$13.3	$13.41	+$0.11	64% 10184-5783 (15967)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 38¢	$11.24	$10.68	-$0.56	58% 23579-16943 (40522)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 34.7¢	$390.26	$9.81	-$36.42	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 37.2¢	$5.99	$6.04	+$0.06	49% 1800-1902 (3702)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$4,968.64

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$415.51

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Over

Invested

$276.75

Value

$427.17

PnL

+$21.57

Record

50%

21821-22062 (43883)

NM-P

Under

Invested

$304.99

Value

$307.49

PnL

+$2.5

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

0xe02066958cfd02ee1fc8a4cdb51b56a1ca50f39bCTR

Over

Invested

$257.78

Value

$271.11

PnL

+$13.33

Record

53%

232-209 (441)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$160.15

Value

$153.37

PnL

-$6.78

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

Both legs:

Over$95.0937¢-$3.86

Under$65.0667.5¢-$2.92

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$68.1

Value

$61.08

PnL

-$7.02

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

RN1<$100

Under

Invested

$23.39

Value

$24.6

PnL

+$1.21

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$23.62

Value

$22.55

PnL

-$1.07

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$21.9

Value

$19.18

PnL

-$2.72

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

GC-P<$100

Under

Invested

$13.3

Value

$13.41

PnL

+$0.11

Record

64%

10184-5783 (15967)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$11.24

Value

$10.68

PnL

-$0.56

Record

58%

23579-16943 (40522)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$390.26

Value

$9.81

PnL

-$36.42

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.99

Value

$6.04

PnL

+$0.06

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 72%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 12 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.