Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-11-08?
2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 59¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 25%
$8.8K
$35.23
56.9¢ → 58.5¢
+3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
50h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
22% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DV dv-pm | Noavg 57¢ | $4.3K | $4.4K | +$113.63 | 48% 3364-3589 (6953) |
DA darkumbreon88CTR | Yesavg 43¢ | $3.4K | $3.3K | -$117.12 | 64% 2039-1134 (3173) |
GC GC-PCTR | Yesavg 41¢ | $307.98 | $315.5 | +$3.76 | 64% 10178-5767 (15945) |
NM NM-PCTR | Yesavg 41¢ | $259.76 | $266.1 | +$3.17 | 64% 10181-5719 (15900) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 55¢ | $104.48 | $259.1 | +$28.6 | 51% 27202-25761 (52963) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Yesavg 41¢ | $171.66 | $175.85 | +$4.19 | 50% 28918-28732 (57650) |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Yesavg 41¢ | $61.91 | $63.42 | +$0.76 | 48% 7449-7982 (15431) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Yesavg 45¢ | $22.5 | $21 | -$1.75 | 48% 62393-67249 (129642) |
Invested
$4,317.74
Value
$4.4K
PnL
+$113.63
Record
48%
3364-3589 (6953)
Invested
$3,357.36
Value
$3.3K
PnL
-$117.12
Record
64%
2039-1134 (3173)
Invested
$307.98
Value
$315.5
PnL
+$3.76
Record
64%
10178-5767 (15945)
Invested
$259.76
Value
$266.1
PnL
+$3.17
Record
64%
10181-5719 (15900)
Invested
$104.48
Value
$259.1
PnL
+$28.6
Record
51%
27202-25761 (52963)
Invested
$171.66
Value
$175.85
PnL
+$4.19
Record
50%
28918-28732 (57650)
Invested
$61.91
Value
$63.42
PnL
+$0.76
Record
48%
7449-7982 (15431)
Invested
$22.5
Value
$21
PnL
-$1.75
Record
48%
62393-67249 (129642)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.