Will SS Lazio win on 2026-11-08?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 71¢ · $937 held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 88%
$937.18
$2.37
70.2¢ → 70.5¢
+0% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 71%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 59%
Freshness
Mature
14h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 71¢ | $460.2 | $456.94 | -$3.26 | 51% 24233-22959 (47192) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 69.3¢ | $180.75 | $183.95 | +$3.2 | 39% 1339-2113 (3452) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 69¢ | $125.58 | $126.49 | +$0.91 | 50% 36339-35820 (72159) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 69¢ | $102.15 | $104.37 | +$2.22 | 40% 1343-2037 (3380) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 71.8¢ | $37.79 | $37.48 | -$0.68 | 48% 59324-63332 (122656) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $11.67 | $11.75 | +$0.08 | 50% 25488-25195 (50683) |
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100 | Yesavg 30¢ | $9.3 | $9.14 | -$0.15 | 71% 7122-2863 (9985) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $7 | $7.05 | +$0.05 | 53% 16518-14663 (31181) |
Invested
$460.2
Value
$456.94
PnL
-$3.26
Record
51%
24233-22959 (47192)
Invested
$180.75
Value
$183.95
PnL
+$3.2
Record
39%
1339-2113 (3452)
Invested
$125.58
Value
$126.49
PnL
+$0.91
Record
50%
36339-35820 (72159)
Invested
$102.15
Value
$104.37
PnL
+$2.22
Record
40%
1343-2037 (3380)
Invested
$37.79
Value
$37.48
PnL
-$0.68
Record
48%
59324-63332 (122656)
Invested
$11.67
Value
$11.75
PnL
+$0.08
Record
50%
25488-25195 (50683)
Invested
$9.3
Value
$9.14
PnL
-$0.15
Record
71%
7122-2863 (9985)
Invested
$7
Value
$7.05
PnL
+$0.05
Record
53%
16518-14663 (31181)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.