Will SSC Napoli vs. SS Lazio end in a draw?

7 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (44%) · No at 76¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 8

Yes24¢No76¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 44%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

$30.35

Smart Money Entry

73.9¢ → 76¢

+3% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 16 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes24%

No76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$770.61

Total Shares2,927

Combined PnL+$12.96

No7 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,592

Combined PnL+$17.39

Yes — 56%No — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GC GC-PARB<$100	Noavg 73¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$11.9	64% 10184-5783 (15967)
└ No leg	Noavg 73¢	$702.72	$707.53	+$4.81
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 26¢	$368.57	$375.66	+$7.09
NM NM-PCTR	Yesavg 26¢	$509.36	$519.16	+$9.8	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
RN1	Noavg 74¢	$311.1	$317.35	+$6.26	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 74¢	$274.29	$276.12	+$1.84	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 74¢	$250.46	$255.68	+$5.22	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 73.8¢	$159.87	$161.35	+$1.49	58% 23579-16943 (40522)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 26¢	$130	$132.5	+$2.5	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Noavg 71¢	$71.05	$73	+$1.95	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
PT PT-S7<$100	Noavg 76¢	$61.56	$61.16	-$0.4	49% 3284-3450 (6734)
PA Pan9X<$100	Noavg 74¢	$51.8	$52.85	+$1.05	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$47.59	$47.59	+$0.92	53% 17085-15197 (32282)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$29.9	$30.52	+$0.62	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$17.33	$16.1	-$0.31	48% 7452-7984 (15436)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$11.58	$11.36	-$0.22	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$10.43	$10.22	-$0.21	51% 6523-6284 (12807)
0X 0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$2.06	$1.95	-$0.11	33% 1194-2378 (3572)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$1.25	$1.23	-$0.02	52% 9022-8174 (17196)

GC-PARB<$100

Invested

$1,071.29

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$11.9

Record

64%

10184-5783 (15967)

Both legs:

Invested

$509.36

Value

$519.16

PnL

+$9.8

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

RN1

Invested

$311.1

Value

$317.35

PnL

+$6.26

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

LightParadox

Invested

$274.29

Value

$276.12

PnL

+$1.84

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

38791873984189

Invested

$250.46

Value

$255.68

PnL

+$5.22

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

ghorrock

Invested

$159.87

Value

$161.35

PnL

+$1.49

Record

58%

23579-16943 (40522)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$130

Value

$132.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

Flaznorp<$100

Invested

$71.05

Value

$73

PnL

+$1.95

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

PT-S7<$100

Invested

$61.56

Value

$61.16

PnL

-$0.4

Record

49%

3284-3450 (6734)

Pan9X<$100

Invested

$51.8

Value

$52.85

PnL

+$1.05

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$47.59

Value

$47.59

PnL

+$0.92

Record

53%

17085-15197 (32282)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.9

Value

$30.52

PnL

+$0.62

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

OddstormCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.33

Value

$16.1

PnL

-$0.31

Record

48%

7452-7984 (15436)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.58

Value

$11.36

PnL

-$0.22

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.43

Value

$10.22

PnL

-$0.21

Record

51%

6523-6284 (12807)

0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.06

Value

$1.95

PnL

-$0.11

Record

33%

1194-2378 (3572)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.25

Value

$1.23

PnL

-$0.02

Record

52%

9022-8174 (17196)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 76%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 16 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.9%

76.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$28.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

128.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.