SSC Napoli vs. SS Lazio: Both Teams to Score

6 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (46%) · Yes at 65¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 8

Yes65¢No35¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 46%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.5K

Combined PnL

-$11.82

Smart Money Entry

63.7¢ → 64.5¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 13 top traders (46%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes65%

No36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,916

Combined PnL+$2.58

No7 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares2,749

Combined PnL-$14.4

Yes — 46%No — 54%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 37.3¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	-$17.44	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
└ No leg	Noavg 37.3¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$65.66
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 61.3¢	$924.97	$973.19	+$48.22
0xheavy888	Yesavg 64¢	$886.45	$893.38	+$6.93	56% 8260-6557 (14817)
SE sentrioCTR	Noavg 37.2¢	$339.91	$325.61	-$14.3	50% 26504-26107 (52611)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Noavg 36¢	$274.54	$278.35	+$3.81	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
nigiri99	Yesavg 64¢	$183.04	$181.61	-$1.43	46% 8770-10464 (19234)
LI LimousinCTR	Noavg 36¢	$152.21	$150.1	-$2.11	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Noavg 36¢	$144	$142	-$2	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
DV dv-pm<$100	Yesavg 60.2¢	$74.66	$74.4	+$1.24	48% 3364-3590 (6954)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Noavg 36¢	$66.63	$65.7	-$0.93	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
38 38791873984189<$100	Yesavg 64¢	$46.86	$47.32	+$0.46	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 39¢	$44.1	$44.1	+$1.13	51% 38648-37820 (76468)
VeryLucky888	Yesavg 61.2¢	$299.52	$35.29	-$4.7	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 38.5¢	$13.19	$13.19	-$0	58% 23579-16943 (40522)
PA Pan9X<$100	Yesavg 64¢	$9.6	$9.68	+$0.08	54% 10485-8797 (19282)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$2,298.55

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$17.44

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

Both legs:

No$1,373.5837.3¢-$65.66

Yes$924.9761.3¢+$48.22

0xheavy888

Yes

Invested

$886.45

Value

$893.38

PnL

+$6.93

Record

56%

8260-6557 (14817)

sentrioCTR

Invested

$339.91

Value

$325.61

PnL

-$14.3

Record

50%

26504-26107 (52611)

MadridTimeCTR

Invested

$274.54

Value

$278.35

PnL

+$3.81

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

nigiri99

Yes

Invested

$183.04

Value

$181.61

PnL

-$1.43

Record

46%

8770-10464 (19234)

LimousinCTR

Invested

$152.21

Value

$150.1

PnL

-$2.11

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

LightParadoxCTR

Invested

$144

Value

$142

PnL

-$2

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

dv-pm<$100

Yes

Invested

$74.66

Value

$74.4

PnL

+$1.24

Record

48%

3364-3590 (6954)

VenusianCTR<$100

Invested

$66.63

Value

$65.7

PnL

-$0.93

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

38791873984189<$100

Yes

Invested

$46.86

Value

$47.32

PnL

+$0.46

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$44.1

Value

$44.1

PnL

+$1.13

Record

51%

38648-37820 (76468)

VeryLucky888

Yes

Invested

$299.52

Value

$35.29

PnL

-$4.7

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$13.19

Value

$13.19

PnL

-$0

Record

58%

23579-16943 (40522)

Pan9X<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.6

Value

$9.68

PnL

+$0.08

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 65%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 13 top traders (46%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.