Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

AC Monza vs. SSC Napoli: 1st Half O/U 1.5

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (63%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 28

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 63%

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

$472.98

Smart Money Entry

52.6¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,680

Combined PnL-$17.64

Under5 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares3,024

Combined PnL+$490.62

Over — 38%Under — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ZX zxc368	Overavg 99.9¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$0.68	99% 12681-184 (12865)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 51.8¢	$693.49	$870.27	+$176.78	59% 44644-31046 (75690)
RN1CTR	Underavg 64.7¢	$471.66	$579.22	+$107.56	54% 55742-47837 (103579)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 46.5¢	$387.94	$539.09	+$151.16	50% 32798-32351 (65149)
FO Forecastication2	Overavg 40.5¢	$121.83	$105.35	-$16.48	50% 6813-6827 (13640)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100	Underavg 8.3¢	$6.32	$61.56	+$55.24	47% 4451-4924 (9375)
DA dashattackerCTR<$100	Underavg 63.7¢	$40.28	$40.16	-$0.12	72% 2286-872 (3158)
HRTrading<$100	Overavg 99.9¢	$11.53	$9.69	-$1.84	53% 3098-2756 (5854)

zxc368

Over

Invested

$1,367.4

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$0.68

Record

99%

12681-184 (12865)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$693.49

Value

$870.27

PnL

+$176.78

Record

59%

44644-31046 (75690)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$471.66

Value

$579.22

PnL

+$107.56

Record

54%

55742-47837 (103579)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$387.94

Value

$539.09

PnL

+$151.16

Record

50%

32798-32351 (65149)

Forecastication2

Over

Invested

$121.83

Value

$105.35

PnL

-$16.48

Record

50%

6813-6827 (13640)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.32

Value

$61.56

PnL

+$55.24

Record

47%

4451-4924 (9375)

dashattackerCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$40.28

Value

$40.16

PnL

-$0.12

Record

72%

2286-872 (3158)

HRTrading<$100

Over

Invested

$11.53

Value

$9.69

PnL

-$1.84

Record

53%

3098-2756 (5854)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.