Will AC Monza win on 2026-11-08?

8 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 69¢ · $18K held · ended Nov 8

Yes32¢No68¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 57%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$17.7K

Combined PnL

-$242.41

Smart Money Entry

73.7¢ → 68.5¢

-7% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 14 top traders (57%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes32%

No69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$11.9K

Total Shares17,521

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Yes6 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares11,263

Combined PnL+$828.18

No — 57%Yes — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 70.4¢	$5.4K	$5.3K	-$144.5	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
XW xwingboy	Noavg 77¢	$5.0K	$4.4K	-$584.42	66% 364-185 (549)
0X 0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276	Noavg 75¢	$2.3K	$1.9K	-$315	67% 2892-1409 (4301)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Yesavg 26¢	$1.1K	$1.4K	+$280.65	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
LI LimousinCTR	Yesavg 25¢	$934	$1.1K	+$213.53	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 23.1¢	$802.78	$1.1K	+$310.22	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Noavg 74.5¢	$595.07	$631.59	+$36.51	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
└ No leg	Noavg 74.5¢	$366.44	$349.44	-$17
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 23.5¢	$228.64	$282.15	+$53.51
RN1ARB<$100	Noavg 70.1¢	$609.68	$596.62	-$13.07	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
└ No leg	Noavg 70.1¢	$454.05	$443.41	-$10.64
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 32¢	$155.64	$153.21	-$2.43
GC GC-PARB<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$398.43	$420.34	+$21.91	64% 10184-5783 (15967)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 23¢	$212.91	$236.05	+$23.14
└ No leg	Noavg 75¢	$185.53	$184.29	-$1.24
LI LightParadoxCTR	Yesavg 27¢	$174.48	$198.13	+$23.65	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
0xheavy888	Noavg 76¢	$212.03	$185.53	-$26.5	56% 8260-6557 (14817)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Yesavg 30.2¢	$174.22	$176.12	+$1.91	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 30.2¢	$122.59	$127.94	+$5.35
└ No leg	Noavg 73.4¢	$51.63	$48.18	-$3.44
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Noavg 73.1¢	$122.18	$97.92	-$5.66	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
└ No leg	Noavg 73.1¢	$78	$73.09	-$4.91
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 31.8¢	$25.09	$24.83	-$0.76
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Noavg 66.3¢	$62.04	$62.94	+$0.9	53% 14954-13478 (28432)
PT PT-S7<$100	Noavg 76¢	$12.16	$10.64	-$1.52	49% 3284-3450 (6734)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 65¢	$7.09	$7.47	+$0.38	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Noavg 68¢	$3.4	$3.47	+$0.07	64% 5377-2997 (8374)
KY Kyn008CTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$1.93	$2.14	+$0.21	49% 299-312 (611)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$1.3	$1.23	-$0.07	52% 9022-8174 (17196)

Flaznorp

Invested

$5,410.57

Value

$5.3K

PnL

-$144.5

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

xwingboy

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.4K

PnL

-$584.42

Record

66%

364-185 (549)

0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276

Invested

$2,250

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$315

Record

67%

2892-1409 (4301)

MadridTimeCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,113.01

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$280.65

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

LimousinCTR

Yes

Invested

$934

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$213.53

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$802.78

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$310.22

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

NM-PARB<$100

Invested

$595.07

Value

$631.59

PnL

+$36.51

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

Both legs:

No$366.4474.5¢-$17

Yes$228.6423.5¢+$53.51

RN1ARB<$100

Invested

$609.68

Value

$596.62

PnL

-$13.07

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

Both legs:

No$454.0570.1¢-$10.64

Yes$155.6432¢-$2.43

GC-PARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$398.43

Value

$420.34

PnL

+$21.91

Record

64%

10184-5783 (15967)

Both legs:

Invested

$174.48

Value

$198.13

PnL

+$23.65

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

0xheavy888

Invested

$212.03

Value

$185.53

PnL

-$26.5

Record

56%

8260-6557 (14817)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$174.22

Value

$176.12

PnL

+$1.91

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

Both legs:

Yes$122.5930.2¢+$5.35

No$51.6373.4¢-$3.44

Pan9XARB<$100

Invested

$122.18

Value

$97.92

PnL

-$5.66

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

Both legs:

No$7873.1¢-$4.91

Yes$25.0931.8¢-$0.76

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Invested

$62.04

Value

$62.94

PnL

+$0.9

Record

53%

14954-13478 (28432)

PT-S7<$100

Invested

$12.16

Value

$10.64

PnL

-$1.52

Record

49%

3284-3450 (6734)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$7.09

Value

$7.47

PnL

+$0.38

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Invested

$3.4

Value

$3.47

PnL

+$0.07

Record

64%

5377-2997 (8374)

Kyn008CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.93

Value

$2.14

PnL

+$0.21

Record

49%

299-312 (611)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.3

Value

$1.23

PnL

-$0.07

Record

52%

9022-8174 (17196)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 69%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 14 top traders (57%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.