Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
AC Milan vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 1.5
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (57%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $752 held · ended Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Under
7
Under 57%
$752.03
-$729.13
17.7¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 LonnieHawkinss | Overavg 95.2¢ | $561.12 | $589.31 | +$28.19 | 52% 1894-1755 (3649) |
CA CannaeCTR | Underavg 20.6¢ | $109.84 | $111.88 | +$2.04 | 53% 15980-14158 (30138) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 21¢ | $21.21 | $21.21 | +$0 | 58% 28788-21225 (50013) |
RO Rocko33<$100 | Overavg 98¢ | $18.7 | $17.94 | -$0.76 | 64% 1125-646 (1771) |
PA pauleta23<$100 | Overavg 99¢ | $10 | $9.49 | -$0.51 | 67% 23351-11752 (35103) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Underavg 17.5¢ | $755.31 | $2.16 | -$753.14 | 50% 25208-24935 (50143) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Underavg 5¢ | $5 | $0.05 | -$4.95 | 49% 8081-8480 (16561) |
LonnieHawkinssInvested
$561.12
Value
$589.31
PnL
+$28.19
Record
52%
1894-1755 (3649)
Invested
$109.84
Value
$111.88
PnL
+$2.04
Record
53%
15980-14158 (30138)
Invested
$21.21
Value
$21.21
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
28788-21225 (50013)
Invested
$18.7
Value
$17.94
PnL
-$0.76
Record
64%
1125-646 (1771)
Invested
$10
Value
$9.49
PnL
-$0.51
Record
67%
23351-11752 (35103)
Invested
$755.31
Value
$2.16
PnL
-$753.14
Record
50%
25208-24935 (50143)
Invested
$5
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$4.95
Record
49%
8081-8480 (16561)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.