AC Milan vs. FC Internazionale Milano: 1st Half O/U 2.5
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (57%) · Over at 100¢ · $273 held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 57%
$273.29
$49.74
64.8¢ → 100¢
+54% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TO topdogbigboi | Overavg 17.8¢ | $21.89 | $109.74 | +$87.85 | 49% 8081-8480 (16561) |
RO Rocko33 | Overavg 94¢ | $105.62 | $66.29 | -$39.33 | 64% 1125-646 (1771) |
US User7429<$100 | Overavg 91.1¢ | $63.8 | $41.3 | -$22.5 | 55% 8315-6706 (15021) |
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100 | Underavg 6.6¢ | $6.4 | $39.66 | +$33.25 | 47% 4586-5092 (9678) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 86¢ | $17.2 | $10.4 | -$6.8 | 58% 28788-21225 (50013) |
 LonnieHawkinss<$100 | Overavg 69¢ | $6.9 | $5.9 | -$1 | 52% 1894-1755 (3649) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 87¢ | $1.74 | $0 | -$1.74 | 53% 4792-4312 (9104) |
Invested
$21.89
Value
$109.74
PnL
+$87.85
Record
49%
8081-8480 (16561)
Invested
$105.62
Value
$66.29
PnL
-$39.33
Record
64%
1125-646 (1771)
Invested
$63.8
Value
$41.3
PnL
-$22.5
Record
55%
8315-6706 (15021)
Invested
$6.4
Value
$39.66
PnL
+$33.25
Record
47%
4586-5092 (9678)
Invested
$17.2
Value
$10.4
PnL
-$6.8
Record
58%
28788-21225 (50013)
LonnieHawkinss<$100Invested
$6.9
Value
$5.9
PnL
-$1
Record
52%
1894-1755 (3649)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.74
Value
$0
PnL
-$1.74
Record
53%
4792-4312 (9104)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.