AC Milan vs. FC Internazionale Milano: 1st Half O/U 1.5

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 100¢ · $240 held · ended Oct 31

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$240.21

Combined PnL

-$26.49

Smart Money Entry

39.3¢ → 100¢

+154% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$159.34

Total Shares312

Combined PnL+$36.8

Under3 traders

Total Value$80.87

Total Shares239

Combined PnL-$63.29

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Overavg 36¢	$104.4	$140.65	+$36.25	54% 56681-48879 (105560)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 63¢	$53.55	$43.78	-$9.77	58% 28788-21225 (50013)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 62.7¢	$31.7	$26.05	-$5.65	57% 13860-10628 (24488)
LonnieHawkinss<$100	Overavg 72¢	$8.64	$11.94	+$3.3	52% 1894-1755 (3649)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 48.4¢	$58.92	$11.05	-$47.87	49% 8081-8480 (16561)
RO Rocko33<$100	Overavg 95¢	$9.5	$6.75	-$2.75	64% 1125-646 (1771)

RN1

Over

Invested

$104.4

Value

$140.65

PnL

+$36.25

Record

54%

56681-48879 (105560)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$53.55

Value

$43.78

PnL

-$9.77

Record

58%

28788-21225 (50013)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$31.7

Value

$26.05

PnL

-$5.65

Record

57%

13860-10628 (24488)

LonnieHawkinss<$100

Over

Invested

$8.64

Value

$11.94

PnL

+$3.3

Record

52%

1894-1755 (3649)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$58.92

Value

$11.05

PnL

-$47.87

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

Rocko33<$100

Over

Invested

$9.5

Value

$6.75

PnL

-$2.75

Record

64%

1125-646 (1771)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.