AC Milan vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 6.5

4 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 94¢ · $52K held · ended Oct 28

Over7¢Under93¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$51.8K

Combined PnL

$3.7K

Smart Money Entry

82.3¢ → 93.5¢

+14% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 12 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over7%

Under94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$40.6K

Total Shares45,100

Combined PnL+$3.2K

Over8 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares19,844

Combined PnL+$539.49

Under — 33%Over — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 80.3¢	$25.1K	$27.9K	+$2.8K	59% 44632-31032 (75664)
DA dashattacker	Underavg 86.7¢	$12.1K	$12.5K	+$396.52	72% 2285-872 (3157)
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 81.4¢	$7.4K	$7.2K	-$284.22	54% 55737-47824 (103561)
└ Under leg	Underavg 81.4¢	$4.8K	$5.3K	+$480.03
└ Over leg	Overavg 14.7¢	$2.7K	$1.9K	-$764.26
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Overavg 16.3¢	$1.7K	$2.3K	+$654.63	50% 24379-23989 (48368)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Overavg 23.9¢	$752.03	$615.87	-$136.16	49% 18616-19046 (37662)
RNGUziCTR	Overavg 19¢	$475	$545	+$70	51% 217-212 (429)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 84.8¢	$274.28	$250.44	-$23.84	50% 32789-32345 (65134)
FO fooooolCTR	Overavg 11.9¢	$171.46	$218.44	+$46.98	50% 10545-10397 (20942)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Overavg 15.4¢	$232.68	$157.44	-$75.24	50% 12125-12330 (24455)
SH shiifooCTR	Overavg 23.8¢	$119.47	$98.1	-$21.37	60% 3248-2179 (5427)
poshposhCTR<$100	Overavg 10.2¢	$39.61	$40.73	+$1.11	60% 9388-6379 (15767)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 87.1¢	$28.02	$28.14	+$0.12	53% 3080-2737 (5817)
AR ARocky33CTR<$100	Overavg 11.4¢	$0.73	$0.27	-$0.46	76% 3924-1248 (5172)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$25,063.43

Value

$27.9K

PnL

+$2.8K

Record

59%

44632-31032 (75664)

dashattacker

Under

Invested

$12,088.04

Value

$12.5K

PnL

+$396.52

Record

72%

2285-872 (3157)

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$7,443.15

Value

$7.2K

PnL

-$284.22

Record

54%

55737-47824 (103561)

Both legs:

Under$4,790.9481.4¢+$480.03

Over$2,652.2114.7¢-$764.26

GoalLineGhostCTR

Over

Invested

$1,682.84

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$654.63

Record

50%

24379-23989 (48368)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Over

Invested

$752.03

Value

$615.87

PnL

-$136.16

Record

49%

18616-19046 (37662)

RNGUziCTR

Over

Invested

$475

Value

$545

PnL

+$70

Record

51%

217-212 (429)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$274.28

Value

$250.44

PnL

-$23.84

Record

50%

32789-32345 (65134)

fooooolCTR

Over

Invested

$171.46

Value

$218.44

PnL

+$46.98

Record

50%

10545-10397 (20942)

LuckyLooCTR

Over

Invested

$232.68

Value

$157.44

PnL

-$75.24

Record

50%

12125-12330 (24455)

shiifooCTR

Over

Invested

$119.47

Value

$98.1

PnL

-$21.37

Record

60%

3248-2179 (5427)

poshposhCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$39.61

Value

$40.73

PnL

+$1.11

Record

60%

9388-6379 (15767)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$28.02

Value

$28.14

PnL

+$0.12

Record

53%

3080-2737 (5817)

ARocky33CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.73

Value

$0.27

PnL

-$0.46

Record

76%

3924-1248 (5172)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 94%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 12 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.8%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.