Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 6 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

AC Milan vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 4.5

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $9K held · ended Oct 28

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$8.6K

Combined PnL

$-1.5K

Smart Money Entry

57.6¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 12 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares7,782

Combined PnL-$450.18

Under6 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares9,383

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CoinTrick	Overavg 99.9¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	+$1.33	98% 3112-75 (3187)
RN1CTR	Underavg 52.1¢	$2.2K	$2.5K	+$310.66	54% 55737-47824 (103561)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 62.6¢	$3.2K	$1.8K	$-1.4K	59% 44632-31032 (75664)
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 38.5¢	$1.8K	$1.2K	-$552.49	50% 24379-23989 (48368)
LonnieHawkinss	Overavg 62¢	$161.1	$255.88	+$94.79	51% 1798-1702 (3500)
FO foooool<$100	Overavg 37.2¢	$73.88	$80.42	+$6.54	50% 10545-10397 (20942)
AR ARocky33<$100	Overavg 63.7¢	$12.53	$19.37	+$6.85	76% 3924-1248 (5172)
US User7429<$100	Overavg 51¢	$19.84	$12.64	-$7.2	55% 8108-6551 (14659)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 65¢	$8.99	$9.06	+$0.07	50% 12125-12330 (24455)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 88¢	$13.93	$7.92	-$6.02	57% 13150-10021 (23171)
SM SmallcoinsCTR<$100	Underavg 2¢	$0.82	$0.62	-$0.21	53% 1158-1021 (2179)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100	Underavg 6¢	$1.56	$0.39	-$1.17	47% 4449-4924 (9373)

CoinTrick

Over

Invested

$2,659.17

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$1.33

Record

98%

3112-75 (3187)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$2,175.27

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$310.66

Record

54%

55737-47824 (103561)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$3,200.2

Value

$1.8K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

59%

44632-31032 (75664)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$1,772.48

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$552.49

Record

50%

24379-23989 (48368)

LonnieHawkinss

Over

Invested

$161.1

Value

$255.88

PnL

+$94.79

Record

51%

1798-1702 (3500)

foooool<$100

Over

Invested

$73.88

Value

$80.42

PnL

+$6.54

Record

50%

10545-10397 (20942)

ARocky33<$100

Over

Invested

$12.53

Value

$19.37

PnL

+$6.85

Record

76%

3924-1248 (5172)

User7429<$100

Over

Invested

$19.84

Value

$12.64

PnL

-$7.2

Record

55%

8108-6551 (14659)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.99

Value

$9.06

PnL

+$0.07

Record

50%

12125-12330 (24455)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$13.93

Value

$7.92

PnL

-$6.02

Record

57%

13150-10021 (23171)

SmallcoinsCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.82

Value

$0.62

PnL

-$0.21

Record

53%

1158-1021 (2179)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.56

Value

$0.39

PnL

-$1.17

Record

47%

4449-4924 (9373)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 12 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.