AC Milan vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 1.5

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (64%) · Over at 100¢ · $9K held · ended Oct 28

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 64%

Total Value

$8.8K

Combined PnL

-$992.01

Smart Money Entry

73¢ → 100¢

+37% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over7 traders

Total Value$8.8K

Total Shares9,965

Combined PnL+$1.5K

Under4 traders

Total Value$45.71

Total Shares9,022

Combined PnL$-2.5K

Over — 64%Under — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 73.2¢	$6.1K	$7.6K	+$1.5K	50% 24366-23976 (48342)
DA darkumbreon88	Overavg 72¢	$676.28	$680.98	+$4.7	65% 1667-897 (2564)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1	Overavg 72¢	$432.94	$435.94	+$3.01	53% 2082-1842 (3924)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Overavg 75¢	$28.5	$27.17	-$1.33	58% 28123-20732 (48855)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Underavg 28¢	$18.26	$18.59	+$0.33	53% 15742-13910 (29652)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 24.8¢	$15.09	$17.31	+$1.62	53% 3056-2718 (5774)
LonnieHawkinss<$100	Overavg 70.9¢	$28.05	$14	+$8.26	51% 1798-1702 (3500)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100	Overavg 92¢	$9.2	$9.15	-$0.05	51% 1282-1219 (2501)
RO Rocko33<$100	Overavg 79¢	$6.32	$5.56	-$0.76	64% 993-564 (1557)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 26.7¢	$16.91	$5.39	-$11.51	54% 55721-47803 (103524)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 28.2¢	$2.5K	$4.42	$-2.5K	59% 44610-31007 (75617)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$6,114.43

Value

$7.6K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

50%

24366-23976 (48342)

darkumbreon88

Over

Invested

$676.28

Value

$680.98

PnL

+$4.7

Record

65%

1667-897 (2564)

hedgevaultmainnet1

Over

Invested

$432.94

Value

$435.94

PnL

+$3.01

Record

53%

2082-1842 (3924)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Over

Invested

$28.5

Value

$27.17

PnL

-$1.33

Record

58%

28123-20732 (48855)

CannaeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$18.26

Value

$18.59

PnL

+$0.33

Record

53%

15742-13910 (29652)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$15.09

Value

$17.31

PnL

+$1.62

Record

53%

3056-2718 (5774)

LonnieHawkinss<$100

Over

Invested

$28.05

Value

$14

PnL

+$8.26

Record

51%

1798-1702 (3500)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100

Over

Invested

$9.2

Value

$9.15

PnL

-$0.05

Record

51%

1282-1219 (2501)

Rocko33<$100

Over

Invested

$6.32

Value

$5.56

PnL

-$0.76

Record

64%

993-564 (1557)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$16.91

Value

$5.39

PnL

-$11.51

Record

54%

55721-47803 (103524)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$2,491.93

Value

$4.42

PnL

$-2.5K

Record

59%

44610-31007 (75617)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.