AC Milan vs. Bologna FC 1909: 1st Half O/U 3.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 60%
$3.3K
-$252.96
81.3¢ → 100¢
+23% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DA dashattacker | Underavg 81.3¢ | $2.9K | $1.9K | $-1.0K | 72% 2285-872 (3157) |
 RN1CTR | Overavg 13.4¢ | $422.13 | $1.3K | +$842.5 | 54% 55737-47824 (103561) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 82.3¢ | $216.27 | $156.09 | -$60.18 | 59% 44632-31032 (75664) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 69.1¢ | $26.42 | $22.78 | -$3.64 | 53% 3080-2737 (5817) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 1.7¢ | $0.34 | $9.5 | +$9.16 | 50% 12125-12330 (24455) |
Invested
$2,936.77
Value
$1.9K
PnL
$-1.0K
Record
72%
2285-872 (3157)
RN1CTRInvested
$422.13
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$842.5
Record
54%
55737-47824 (103561)
Invested
$216.27
Value
$156.09
PnL
-$60.18
Record
59%
44632-31032 (75664)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$26.42
Value
$22.78
PnL
-$3.64
Record
53%
3080-2737 (5817)
Invested
$0.34
Value
$9.5
PnL
+$9.16
Record
50%
12125-12330 (24455)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.