Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
US Lecce vs. Genoa CFC: 1st Half O/U 2.5
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (71%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $726 held · ended Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Under
7
Under 71%
$725.89
$-2.0K
77.8¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1CTR | Underavg 77.2¢ | $553.63 | $552.16 | -$1.47 | 54% 57187-49444 (106631) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Overavg 22.7¢ | $19.08 | $83.96 | +$64.88 | 49% 13032-13607 (26639) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 91¢ | $70.07 | $65.45 | -$4.62 | 57% 29247-21632 (50879) |
VA Vampiro1<$100 | Overavg 88.9¢ | $20.44 | $22.99 | +$2.55 | 77% 3446-1053 (4499) |
DA dashattackerCTR | Underavg 75.5¢ | $1.7K | $1.13 | $-1.7K | 72% 2545-973 (3518) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 90.9¢ | $357.83 | $0.2 | -$357.63 | 59% 46944-33223 (80167) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Underavg 11.1¢ | $0.99 | $0 | -$0.98 | 48% 8991-9637 (18628) |
RN1CTRInvested
$553.63
Value
$552.16
PnL
-$1.47
Record
54%
57187-49444 (106631)
Invested
$19.08
Value
$83.96
PnL
+$64.88
Record
49%
13032-13607 (26639)
Invested
$70.07
Value
$65.45
PnL
-$4.62
Record
57%
29247-21632 (50879)
Invested
$20.44
Value
$22.99
PnL
+$2.55
Record
77%
3446-1053 (4499)
Invested
$1,707.01
Value
$1.13
PnL
$-1.7K
Record
72%
2545-973 (3518)
Invested
$357.83
Value
$0.2
PnL
-$357.63
Record
59%
46944-33223 (80167)
Invested
$0.99
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.98
Record
48%
8991-9637 (18628)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.