Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
SS Lazio vs. Cagliari Calcio: 1st Half O/U 1.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 40%
1 arb excluded
$7.6K
$-3.0K
57.7¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DA dashattackerCTR | Underavg 57.6¢ | $3.0K | $3.4K | $-3.0K | 72% 2540-972 (3512) |
ZX zxc368 | Overavg 99.9¢ | $2.2K | $2.2K | +$1.08 | 98% 13363-214 (13577) |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Overavg 41.8¢ | $2.1K | $1.9K | +$882.16 | 54% 57169-49417 (106586) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 41.8¢ | $1.2K | $1.0K | +$1.7K | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 60.9¢ | $845.38 | $916.08 | -$844.68 | |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 62¢ | $55.18 | $58.74 | +$3.56 | 57% 29237-21620 (50857) |
VA Vampiro1<$100 | Overavg 92¢ | $11.5 | $4.25 | -$7.25 | 77% 3443-1052 (4495) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Overavg 35¢ | $3.64 | $3.54 | -$0.1 | 49% 13022-13588 (26610) |
Invested
$2,978.18
Value
$3.4K
PnL
$-3.0K
Record
72%
2540-972 (3512)
Invested
$2,161.03
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$1.08
Record
98%
13363-214 (13577)
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$2,088.61
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$882.16
Record
54%
57169-49417 (106586)
Both legs:
Invested
$55.18
Value
$58.74
PnL
+$3.56
Record
57%
29237-21620 (50857)
Invested
$11.5
Value
$4.25
PnL
-$7.25
Record
77%
3443-1052 (4495)
Invested
$3.64
Value
$3.54
PnL
-$0.1
Record
49%
13022-13588 (26610)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.